AXT Inc (AXTI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$61.64+9.68%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AXTI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -18.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers
AXTI — capital allocation — Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders
Dated 2026-07-29
Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders. The information set forth under
Why it matters: Updates on the IPO can change AXT's money options and market position.
Watch forTongmei re-files its IPO application. This shows it believes in the market again.
Also watch forTongmei withdraws its IPO application. This shows ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: If this level is exceeded, it shows strong demand for indium phosphide substrates. It also shows that capacity is growing well.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue is over $50 million. This shows strong growth in indium phosphide demand.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is below $45 million. This suggests weaker demand or problems with capacity.
Why it matters: Timely payments from Lumentum show strong demand and financial health for AXT.
Supportive ifLumentum will make a $43.5 million deposit in 30 days.
Worry ifLumentum may delay or cancel the deposit payment.
Why it matters: If revenue goes above this mark, it shows strong demand for indium phosphide substrates. This is especially true for AI.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue was over $50 million. This shows strong customer demand and growth in capacity.
Worry ifQ3 revenue was below $45 million. This suggests weaker demand or problems with production.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$761 on $10,000 · ±7.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,463 loss on $10,000 · 14.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,375 loss on $10,000 · 73.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Indium phosphide is key for AI infrastructure. Progress here could boost future sales.
Supportive ifNew contracts or partnerships for indium phosphide were announced.
Worry ifNo new contracts or developments for indium phosphide were announced.
Why it matters: Confirming revenue growth shows the company is on track for recovery. It is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ1 revenue shows sequential growth compared to Q4 of the previous year.
Worry ifQ1 revenue declines or stays flat compared to Q4 of the previous year.
Why it matters: Getting these permits is key for AXT to meet customer demand and grow its market.
Watch forAXT gets the needed export permits for indium phosphide substrates.
Also watch forAXT faces delays or denials in obtaining the export permits.