Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
AXT Inc (AXTI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$36.72-22.76%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.22 → 2.55 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AXTI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Successful execution of long-term supply agreement with Casela | The company secured a long-term supply agreement supporting future sales. | Improving | Material breach or cancellation of supply agreement | Qualitative: No breach reported; Lumentum agreement signed 2026-07-26 Lumentum Capacity Reservation Agreement signed July 2026; Q3 earnings beat; no supply agreement breaches reported. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AXTI is a high-risk growth business whose multi-year view depends on expanding indium phosphide (InP), a material used in optical communications. The thesis remains intact, but recent earnings weakened momentum and management execution has been volatile.
AXTI is valued at a 6.3% premium to peers, and the valuation model has low confidence. The evidence points to an expectations gap driven by optionality, meaning investors appear to assign value to future growth possibilities, while the premium is not supported by strong earnings today because the company is loss-making.
Near-term results are uncertain: AXTI missed its latest quarter, and recent momentum and composite insight fell after the report. Over the multi-year view, revenue rose across the first three quarters of 2026, and management says it surpassed its capacity-doubling commitment; however, the evidence does not show whether recent growth can continue.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, especially given erratic earnings surprises. The favorable case depends partly on continued demand for optical connectivity and execution on capacity, with possible support from Fed rate cuts or steadier results from large technology companies.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, AXTI’s thesis rests on turning fast InP growth and capacity expansion into more dependable financial performance. The latest miss and expensive valuation make that execution uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in AXT Inc's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.3 in FY26 and EPS >= $0.78 in FY27. |
| Improving |
| EPS remains negative or below $0.1 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $0.17 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.3 in FY26 and EPS >= $0.78 in FY27. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 13, 20260.17 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sequential revenue growth in Q1 and beyond | A primary condition in AXT Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $26.9M revenue in 2026-Q1 and continued sequential growth. | Intact | Revenue falls below $23M in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Revenue: $47.589M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $26.9M revenue in 2026-Q1 and continued sequential growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 13, 202647,589,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.78 → $2.55 · observed estimates
$0.22B → $0.52B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.78 | $222,351,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.78 | $222,351,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.78 | $222,351,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.78 | $222,351,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.78 | $222,351,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.78 | $222,351,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.78 | $222,351,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.78 | $222,351,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.78 | $222,351,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.23 | $460,552,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.23 | $460,552,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.23 | $460,552,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.23 | $460,552,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.23 | $460,552,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.22 | $460,552,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.23 | $460,552,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.23 | $460,552,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.23 | $460,552,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.23 | $460,552,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.23 | $460,552,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.23 | $460,552,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.22 | $460,552,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.22 | $460,552,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.22 | $460,552,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.22 | $460,552,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.22 | $460,552,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.22 | $460,552,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.22 | $460,552,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.22 | $460,552,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.22 | $460,552,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.22 | $460,552,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.22 | $460,552,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.22 | $482,526,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.22 | $482,526,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.22 | $482,526,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.22 | $482,526,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.22 | $482,526,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.22 | $482,526,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.23 | $482,526,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.23 | $482,526,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.23 | $482,526,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.65 | $529,298,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.65 | $529,298,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.65 | $529,298,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.65 | $529,298,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.55 | $522,113,143 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-05 | $2.55 | $522,113,143 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.