Becton Dickinson (BDX)
NYSEHealth CareMedical Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-07-07
$156.30+0.49%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $156.30. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $156 BDX trades at 12× p/e, below its 37× p/e peer median. Our $220 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits above the analyst range and the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Analysts target $159–$204. Note: our $220 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($159–$204). Not investment advice.
$159.00 – $204.00 (median $175.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-07-06
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $12.11/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $175.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $484.45 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $537.10 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $72.66 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $161.32 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $460.89 | 36.5 | 12.62 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $37.09 | 6.2 | 15.52 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $268.23 | 24.0 | 11.20 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $491.20 | 36.5 | 13.45 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $219.30 | 2.8 | 78.96 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $110.28 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $180.99 | 13.5 | 13.45 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $522.63 | 36.5 | 14.31 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $456.18 | 36.5 | 12.49 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $407.94 | 24.0 | 17.03 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $486.18 | 36.5 | 13.31 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $179.14 | 13.5 | 13.31 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $453.07 | 36.5 | 12.41 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $539.51 | 24.0 | 22.52 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $482.86 | 36.5 | 13.22 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $177.92 | 13.5 | 13.22 | Analyst | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.