Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$14.14 → $14.16 · observed estimates
Becton Dickinson (BDX)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$213.55+2.08%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
14.14 → 14.16 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BDX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Return $2.2 billion to shareholders via buybacks and dividends | The company returns cash to shareholders with $2.2 billion in buybacks and dividends. | Intact | Capital returned falls below $2 billion annually | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “BD expects to use $2 billion of the proceeds to repurchase BD common shares through an accelerated share repurchase program and the remaining $2 billion for debt repayment.” “Both initiatives are expected to be executed in the near term, subject to market conditions.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$14.14 → $14.16 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
BDX is a relatively established healthcare business with a multi-year view that depends on continued growth-platform execution and margin expansion. The thesis is intact, and recent financial performance is strong, but management is rated volatile and the valuation is stretched.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure describes BDX as cheap versus peers, while another shows a 52% premium to peers and an expectations gap of 0.11. Overall, the snapshot tags the setup as stretched, so expectations appear demanding despite the conflicting peer comparison.
Near-term results show momentum: revenue rose from $4.7 billion in 2026-Q1 to $5.0 billion in 2026-Q2, and adjusted diluted EPS guidance was raised. Management has consistently emphasized growth platforms and margin expansion, while debt repayment and share repurchases have been executed with mixed status. Near-term miss risk is low, but a guidance reversal would damage credibility.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on BDX sustaining its raised guidance and continuing to deliver on growth and margin priorities. Weakening jobs data could increase recession concerns, while continued earnings strength from sector peers could support a favorable healthcare backdrop.
For the 1-to-3-year view, BDX has strong recent execution and an intact thesis, but its stretched valuation leaves less room for setbacks. The main test is whether management can sustain performance and guidance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Use $2 billion cash distribution to repay debt | The company returns cash to shareholders with $2.2 billion in buybacks and dividends. | Intact | Debt repayment from cash distribution falls below $1 billion | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “BD expects to use $2 billion of the proceeds to repurchase BD common shares through an accelerated share repurchase program and the remaining $2 billion for debt repayment.” “Both initiatives are expected to be executed in the near term, subject to market conditions.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Non-GAAP EPS near $12.6 per share | It keeps beating earnings estimates with EPS around $12.6 next year. | Intact | EPS guidance falls below $12.5 for FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth at or above 5% annually | A primary condition in Becton Dickinson's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 0% next year | Revenue growth: -9.55% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=5% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026-9.548012 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$20.44B → $20.46B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $14.14 | $20,437,589,262 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $14.14 | $20,437,567,040 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $14.14 | $20,437,567,040 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $14.14 | $20,437,567,040 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $14.14 | $20,437,567,040 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $14.16 | $20,468,210,336 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $14.16 | $20,468,210,336 | 2 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $14.16 | $20,468,210,336 | 2 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $14.16 | $20,468,210,336 | 2 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $14.16 | $20,468,210,336 | 2 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $14.16 | $20,468,210,336 | 2 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $14.16 | $20,468,210,336 | 2 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $14.16 | $20,468,210,336 | 2 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $14.16 | $20,468,210,336 | 2 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $14.16 | $20,468,210,336 | 2 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $14.16 | $20,468,210,336 | 2 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $14.16 | $20,468,210,336 | 2 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $14.16 | $20,468,210,336 | 2 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $14.16 | $20,468,210,336 | 2 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $14.16 | $20,468,210,336 | 2 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $14.16 | $20,468,210,336 | 2 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $14.16 | $20,455,554,851 | 2 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $14.16 | $20,455,554,851 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $14.16 | $20,455,554,851 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $14.16 | $20,455,554,851 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $14.16 | $20,455,554,851 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $14.16 | $20,455,554,851 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $14.16 | $20,455,554,851 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $14.16 | $20,455,554,851 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $14.16 | $20,455,554,851 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $14.16 | $20,455,554,851 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $14.16 | $20,455,554,851 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $14.16 | $20,455,554,851 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $14.16 | $20,455,554,851 | 3 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $14.16 | $20,455,554,851 | 2 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.