Bumble, Inc. (BMBL)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$5.98-0.33%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BMBL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -59.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -8.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 51.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers
BMBL — officer change
Dated 2026-07-02
Director — Jonathan C. Korngold: Mr. Korngold resigned from the Board of Directors.
Why it matters: The deal sets cash payment at $6.05 per share. A delay or change could alter the value and timing shareholders receive.
Watch forA closing notice confirms the merger is complete. Shareholders receive $6.05 per share in cash.
Also watch forA filing says the deal ended, its terms changed, or required approvals stopped it from closing.
Why it matters: Management named the platform rebuild and new member tools as key work. A launch would show that plan reached members.
Supportive ifBumble confirms the platform move is complete. It launches the reworked app with new matching or chat features.
Worry ifBumble says the platform move is not done, or delays the reworked app past its stated 2026 launch window.
Why it matters: Bumble app paying users fell 17% in Q2. A smaller drop would show that fewer members are leaving the paid base.
Supportive ifBumble app paying users reach at least 2.08 million in the next reported quarter. Their year-over-year drop is smaller than Q2's 17%.
Worry ifBumble app paying users fall below 2.08 million, or the year-over-year decline reaches 17% or more.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$147 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $583 loss on $10,000 · 5.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,387 loss on $10,000 · 53.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.