Bumble, Inc. (BMBL)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.90+1.05%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Adjusted EBITDA reaches at least $65 million in 2026-Q2: Q2 EBITDA margin -51.4% vs target 65M USD.
Bumble aims for revenue near $213 million in 2026-Q2. Profit guidance targets adjusted EBITDA up to $70 million. The company has improved quality scores and beat earnings recently. Its valuation is very cheap compared to peers.
Revenue is expected to decline about 7.5% next year. Profit margins are shrinking with adjusted EBITDA guidance lowered. The stock is in a 30% drawdown and the company remains loss-making. Management changes add uncertainty.
The market expects about -7.5% revenue growth and has priced the stock well below consensus targets. Our fair value is about 110% above the Street median, reflecting more optimism on recovery than current analyst views.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $65 million in 2026-Q2
Breaks if: Additional key officer or director departures occur
Revenue falls below $205 million in 2026-Q2
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on product innovation and platform transformation. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent financial performance has not met industry expectations, but there is potential for improvement.
The market currently prices BMBL as relatively cheap compared to peers, with a slight premium. There is an expectations gap indicating that investors may anticipate challenges ahead, especially given the company's recent mixed financial results.
Management is focused on executing product innovation and maintaining financial discipline, but recent revenue and adjusted EBITDA have shown slight declines. The near-term risk is moderate, with a 25% chance of missing guidance, which could impact investor sentiment.
The long-term thesis hinges on BMBL's ability to execute its product roadmap and the performance of sector bellwethers like GOOGL, GOOG, and META. Positive momentum in the Communication Services sector could provide support, while any negative guidance from these companies could weigh heavily on BMBL.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss is a significant concern. Analysts are cutting targets and questioning revenue guidance. The company also killed a key feature, impacting product innovation.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Bumble anticipates total revenue in the range of $205 million to $213 million for 2026-Q2.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, BMBL's performance will depend on its execution of strategic priorities and broader sector trends. Not investment advice.