Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Bumble, Inc. (BMBL)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$5.98-0.33%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.94 → 0.90 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BMBL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA reaches at least $65 million in 2026-Q2 | Profit guidance targets adjusted EBITDA up to $70 million. | Broken | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $65 million in 2026-Q2 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a loss-making, higher-risk business with a product transformation thesis, rather than a proven durable compounder. The thesis is on watch: recent performance remains below its industry cohort, although it has not freshly broken.
The valuation evidence points to BMBL as cheap versus peers, but the model has low confidence and also reports a 0.2 premium versus peers. The negative expectations gap suggests expectations are not especially supportive; the snapshot labels the setup justified and finds low fragility.
Near term, revenue slipped from $212.4 million in the first quarter of 2026 to $210.5 million in the second, while Adjusted EBITDA, a measure of operating earnings, fell from $82.6 million to $72.9 million. Management continues to prioritize platform migration, AI-enabled products, and cost discipline, but third-quarter profit guidance was lower than second-quarter guidance, and recent earnings performance has been erratic despite an August earnings beat.
Over the next few quarters, the key company-specific risk is whether management cuts guidance again; the snapshot flags that as a meaningful negative. The multi-year view also depends on whether product changes support business performance, while lower interest rates and strong results from large sector peers could provide a favorable backdrop.
For the next one to three years, BMBL’s case depends on execution improving the business while it manages elevated risk and sector headwinds. Evidence is mixed, so the long-term thesis remains on watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Bumble, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No major officer or director resignations over next 4 quarters. |
| Under Pressure |
| Additional key officer or director departures occur |
1 director departure vs 0 allowed Item 5.02 filing confirms Director Jonathan C. Korngold resigned from the Board of Directors on July 2, 2026. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches at least $205 million in 2026-Q2 | A primary condition in Bumble, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=205 million USD. | Intact | Revenue falls below $205 million in 2026-Q2 | Revenue: $207.091M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=205 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 2026207,091,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.92 → $0.90 · observed estimates
$0.83B → $0.81B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.92 | $829,573,470 | 2 / 15 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.92 | $829,573,470 | 2 / 15 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.92 | $829,573,470 | 2 / 15 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.92 | $829,573,470 | 2 / 15 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.92 | $829,573,470 | 2 / 15 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.92 | $829,573,470 | 2 / 15 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.92 | $829,573,470 | 2 / 15 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.92 | $828,543,000 | 2 / 14 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.98 | $829,573,452 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.92 | $828,543,000 | 2 / 14 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.92 | $828,543,000 | 2 / 14 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.92 | $828,543,000 | 2 / 14 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.92 | $828,543,000 | 2 / 14 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.92 | $828,543,000 | 2 / 14 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.96 | $823,773,518 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.91 | $821,228,460 | 2 / 14 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.94 | $815,485,600 | 2 / 14 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.94 | $815,485,600 | 2 / 14 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.94 | $815,485,600 | 2 / 14 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.94 | $815,485,600 | 2 / 14 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.94 | $815,485,600 | 2 / 14 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.96 | $823,773,518 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.96 | $823,773,518 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.96 | $823,773,518 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.96 | $823,773,518 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.96 | $823,773,518 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.96 | $823,773,518 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.93 | $809,530,317 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.93 | $809,530,317 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.93 | $809,530,317 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.93 | $809,570,072 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.93 | $809,570,072 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.93 | $809,570,072 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.93 | $809,570,072 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.93 | $809,570,072 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.93 | $809,570,072 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.93 | $809,570,072 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.93 | $809,570,072 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.93 | $809,570,072 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.93 | $809,570,072 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.93 | $809,570,072 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.93 | $809,570,072 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.93 | $809,570,072 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.94 | $805,027,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.94 | $805,032,079 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.90 | $805,226,859 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.90 | $805,226,859 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.90 | $805,226,859 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.90 | $803,368,923 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.90 | $803,368,923 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.90 | $803,368,923 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.90 | $803,368,923 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.90 | $803,368,923 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.90 | $803,368,923 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.90 | $803,368,923 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.90 | $805,765,815 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.90 | $805,765,815 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.90 | $805,765,815 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.90 | $805,765,815 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.90 | $805,765,815 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.90 | $805,765,815 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.90 | $803,923,468 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.90 | $805,765,815 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.90 | $805,765,815 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.90 | $805,765,815 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.90 | $805,765,815 | 4 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.