Biomea Fusion Inc (BMEA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.59-4.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BMEA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 65 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: This trial tests icovamenib in people with type 2 diabetes who lack insulin. A clear benefit would support the diabetes program.
Watch forThe Q1 2027 data show a clear benefit versus placebo on the 26-week primary endpoint. There is no new major safety issue.
Also watch forThe trial misses its 26-week primary endpoint, or reports a major safety issue.
Why it matters: The planned study will test longer dosing in recently diagnosed patients. Starting the trial would build on earlier C-peptide results.
Supportive ifThe company confirms the Phase II trial has started and patients are receiving the planned 6-to-12-month dosing.
Worry ifThe trial has not started by the end of 2026, or the company reports a delay or change to the study plan.
Why it matters: Biomea reported $35.2 million in cash at June 30, 2026, and gave a runway into Q2 2027. A shorter runway could add funding pressure.
Worry ifThe next company update says cash will run out before the end of Q1 2027, or reports cash below what planned trials need.
Less concerning ifThe company maintains runway into Q2 2027 or later, with cash near or above its June 30, 2026 balance of $35.2 million.
Why it matters: This trial tests icovamenib in people with type 2 diabetes who are already on GLP-1 drugs. It can show whether the drug adds benefit.
Watch forThe Q2 2027 data show a clear benefit versus placebo on the 26-week primary endpoint. There is no new major safety issue.
Also watch forThe trial misses its 26-week primary endpoint, or reports a major safety issue.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$247 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $845 loss on $10,000 · 8.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,353 loss on $10,000 · 73.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The October readout showed weight loss, but Cohort 4 raised a concern about drug use. A confined Cohort 5 can test that concern.
Watch forCohort 5 shows clear drug exposure and weight loss near or above Cohort 3's 3.0 kg at Day 29, without a major safety issue.
Also watch forCohort 5 shows low drug exposure, little weight loss, or a serious safety concern.