Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Biomea Fusion Inc (BMEA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.59-4.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BMEA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Advance COVALENT-112 trial for icovamenib in type 1 diabetes | Biomea Fusion is advancing its key drug trial for type 1 diabetes. | Intact | Trial progress stalls or negative trial results reported | Qualitative: COVALENT-112 Phase 2 results positive (52% C-peptide increase); Phase I reporting scheduled Positive Phase 2 COVALENT-112 results reported April 2026; Phase I results scheduled for October 2026. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is speculative growth, not a profitable or established business: BMEA has no reported revenue and is developing programs for diabetes and obesity. The long-term thesis is intact in the snapshot, but confidence is low and the overall signal is mixed.
The valuation measure fell from 63.8 to 37.0, a 26.8-point decline, while the signal shifted from mildly favorable to mixed and the risk label rose to high. The snapshot gives no peer comparison or direct account of market expectations, so whether the valuation is cheap, fair, or expensive is unclear.
Near term, results have been described as holding in the top half of the industry, and two recent earnings events were labeled positive. The quarterly net loss narrowed, but BMEA remains loss-making and the clinical programs are still in development, with limited evidence of delivery on management priorities. Cash declined between March and June 2026, though management's stated runway moved into the second quarter of 2027; next-print risk is elevated, with a 44% miss probability in the snapshot.
The multi-year view depends on progress in the icovamenib diabetes trials and BMF-650 obesity program, for which the supplied evidence does not establish clinical outcomes or commercial progress. Near term, a guidance cut is a stated negative trigger, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers are possible supports. Weaker jobs data could also weigh on the sector, according to the snapshot.
Over the next one to three years, BMEA's thesis rests on converting clinical programs and cash runway into evidence of durable progress, while managing high risk and ongoing losses. The evidence is mixed and confidence is low. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Biomea Fusion is advancing its key drug trial for type 1 diabetes. |
| Intact |
| Data delayed or negative results reported |
Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain cash runway into Q1 2027 | The company has maintained a cash runway into early 2027. | Intact | Cash runway falls short of Q1 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The decrease of $21.2 million was primarily driven by a decrease of $10.7 million in external costs primarily driven by a decrease of $3.1 million related to clinical activities, a decrease of $3.4 million related to preclinical and exploratory programs, a decrease of $3.2 million in other external costs related to consultants, advisors and other professional services to support our clinical studies, and a decrease of $1.0 million of manufacturing costs.” “Personnel-related expenses decreased by $7.0 million, including stock-based compensation, due to a decrease in headcount.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.10 → $-0.77 · observed estimates
$0.00B → $0.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.10 | $0 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.10 | $0 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.10 | $0 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.10 | $0 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.10 | $0 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.10 | $0 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.10 | $0 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.10 | $0 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.10 | $0 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.10 | $0 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.10 | $0 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.10 | $0 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.10 | $0 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.10 | $0 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-1.17 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.10 | $0 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.10 | $0 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.10 | $0 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.96 | $0 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.94 | $0 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.94 | $0 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.17 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.17 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.17 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.17 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.17 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.17 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.03 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.98 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.98 | $1,117,179 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.98 | $1,117,179 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.98 | $1,117,179 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.98 | $1,117,179 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.98 | $1,117,179 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.98 | $1,117,179 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.98 | $1,117,179 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.98 | $1,117,179 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.77 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.77 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.77 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.77 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.77 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.77 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.77 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.77 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.77 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.77 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.77 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.77 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.77 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.77 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.77 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.77 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.77 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.77 | $1,117,179 | 4 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.