BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$66.53+0.15%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BMRN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -11.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 22.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 34.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers
BMRN — litigation filed
Dated 2026-08-31
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 30, 2026 (the “ Effective Date ”), BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (“ BioMarin ”) entered into a binding term sheet (the “ Term Sheet ”) with Ascendis Pharma A/S (“ Ascendis ”) that sets forth the terms and conditions for a global settlement and license agreement (the “ Agreement ”) that resolves all pending proceedings relating to the BioMarin Patent Rights (as defined below). In accordance with the Term Sheet, BioMarin will grant to Ascendi…
Why it matters: An update on revenue guidance will show if growth is on track after Amicus acquisition.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 revenue guidance is now above $3.925 billion.
Worry ifRevenue guidance is the same or lower than $3.825 billion.
Why it matters: High debt can limit BioMarin's money options and growth plans.
Worry ifNet debt remains below $2 billion after the acquisition.
Less concerning ifNet debt exceeds $3 billion after the acquisition.
Why it matters: Changes in operating income will show how well BioMarin controls costs after the deal.
Supportive ifOperating income rises to over $150 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating income drops below $100 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Acceptance would show progress in growing VOXZOGO's market and revenue.
Supportive ifU.S. FDA accepts the sNDA for VOXZOGO for achondroplasia.
Worry ifsNDA is not accepted or delayed beyond Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$107 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $303 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,249 loss on $10,000 · 22.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Good data may lead to regulatory submissions. A launch could happen in 2027.
Supportive ifBMN 401 Phase 3 data shows positive results for children with ENPP1 deficiency.
Worry ifBMN 401 Phase 3 data fails to meet primary endpoints.
Why it matters: Progress in enrollment will show the chance for quick data and market entry.
Supportive ifEnrollment in the BMN 333 study hits target numbers early.
Worry ifEnrollment is slower than expected or falls short of targets.
Why it matters: Completing the acquisition will add ALE1. This could be the first oral therapy for hypophosphatasia. It may also grow BioMarin's pipeline and market.
Supportive ifThe acquisition of Alesta is completed by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe acquisition is delayed or fails to close due to regulatory issues.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target shows strong demand for VOXZOGO. It also shows good market reach.
Supportive ifVOXZOGO revenue was over $1 billion for the full year of 2026.
Worry ifVOXZOGO revenue falls short of $1 billion for full-year 2026.