BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$56.12-1.77%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BMRN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -36.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 18.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 55.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 65 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BMRN — litigation filed
Dated 2026-09-30
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On September 24, 2026, BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (BioMarin) entered into a Settlement and License Agreement (the Agreement) with Ascendis Pharma A/S (Ascendis). The terms of the Agreement are consistent with those contained in the binding term sheet previously entered into by the parties, which was reported by BioMarin on a Current Report on Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on August 31, 2026 (the Term Sheet). The Agreem…
Why it matters: The study met its main growth goal in children with hypochondroplasia. Full results can show whether the benefit extends across key measures.
Supportive ifThe full results show a clear gain in growth speed and confirm gains in height and arm span.
Worry ifThe full results fail to confirm the reported growth gain or show a safety concern that limits use.
Why it matters: The Amicus deal added GALAFOLD and POMBILITI + OPFOLDA, while deal costs lowered earnings. Sales growth and cost cuts will test the deal's progress.
Watch forQ3 results show higher revenue than a year ago for both acquired products. They also show progress toward $220 million in yearly cost cuts by 2028.
Also watch forQ3 results show lower sales for either acquired product. Or BioMarin cuts or delays its plan to save $220 million each year by 2028.
Why it matters: ALE1 is an early clinical program for HPP and may offer an oral treatment. Trial data will test its safety and effect on disease markers.
Watch forThe trial reports acceptable safety and shows ALE1 lowers excess PPi in adults with HPP.
Also watch forThe trial reports a serious safety issue or fails to show a drop in excess PPi.
Why it matters: VOXZOGO sales reached $253 million in Q2, and full-year guidance rose to at least $1 billion. Higher Q3 sales would support continued growth.
Supportive ifQ3 VOXZOGO revenue is above $253 million and patient numbers keep rising year over year.
Worry ifQ3 VOXZOGO revenue is $253 million or less, or patient numbers fall year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$121 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $295 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,258 loss on $10,000 · 22.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.