Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$56.12-1.77%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.66 → 6.37 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BMRN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain competitive edge in rare disease treatments | BioMarin grows revenue about 24% a year, helped by new rare disease treatments. | Improving | Competitors erode market share significantly | Qualitative: Q3 beat, FY26 guide $3.8B-$3.9B, $70M deferrals Q3 2026 earnings beat estimates; full-year revenue guidance cut to $3.8B-$3.9B with $70M order deferrals flagged. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented biotech business with a multi-year view that depends on continued growth from key therapies and successful integration of Amicus. The thesis is intact, with recent financial performance in the top half of its industry, though management execution has been volatile.
The valuation is at a 32% premium to peers, and the evidence labels that premium as justified, with low valuation fragility. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially low; the model has medium confidence.
Near term, revenue growth has been strong: second-quarter revenue reached $990 million, and VOXZOGO guidance was raised to at least $1 billion for 2026. Amicus products and metabolic conditions are contributing to growth, but acquisition costs have reduced GAAP net income, while debt management remains important. The next guidance update is a near-term risk, and recent litigation filings add uncertainty.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis hinges on integrating Amicus and sustaining growth in GALAFOLD, POMBILITI + OPFOLDA, VOXZOGO, and enzyme therapies while improving profitability. Debt reduction toward management’s leverage goal is another execution test. A guidance cut or a weaker sector backdrop could weigh on the business outlook, while continued strength among healthcare peers would support the sector context.
BMRN’s multi-year thesis remains intact, but growth needs to translate into stronger profitability as acquisition costs and debt are managed. The valuation already carries a peer premium, so execution and guidance are central to the 1-to-3-year read. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in BioMarin Pharmaceutical's published investment case. The stated target is Operating income > $100M. |
| Intact |
| Operating income falls below breakeven next year |
Operating income: $-82.081M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating income > $100M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 3, 2026-82,081,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
BioMarin's total revenue grows to about $3.9 billion | BioMarin grows revenue about 24% a year, helped by new rare disease treatments. | Intact | Revenue falls below $3.2B in FY26 | Revenue: $1.025B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$3.9B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 20261,024,646,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete and integrate Amicus acquisition | A supporting condition in BioMarin Pharmaceutical's published investment case. The stated target is Amicus fully integrated by end 2026. | Intact | Acquisition fails or integration disrupts growth | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.39 → $6.37 · observed estimates
$4.43B → $4.46B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.39 | $4,427,389,840 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.39 | $4,427,389,840 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.39 | $4,427,389,840 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.39 | $4,427,389,840 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.39 | $4,427,389,840 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.39 | $4,427,389,840 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.39 | $4,427,389,840 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.39 | $4,427,389,840 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.63 | $4,442,389,838 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.63 | $4,442,389,838 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.39 | $4,427,389,840 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.39 | $4,427,389,840 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.39 | $4,427,389,840 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.39 | $4,427,389,840 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-08-07 | $6.63 | $4,442,389,838 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.63 | $4,442,389,838 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.37 | $4,443,084,200 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.37 | $4,443,084,200 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-08-11 | $6.56 | $4,450,122,940 | 16 / 22 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.63 | $4,455,620,690 | 17 / 23 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.63 | $4,455,620,690 | 17 / 23 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.63 | $4,442,389,838 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.63 | $4,442,389,838 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.63 | $4,442,389,838 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.63 | $4,442,389,838 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.63 | $4,442,389,838 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.63 | $4,442,389,838 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.65 | $4,454,699,276 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.62 | $4,454,593,668 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.62 | $4,454,593,668 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.62 | $4,454,593,668 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.62 | $4,454,593,668 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.62 | $4,454,593,668 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.62 | $4,454,593,668 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.62 | $4,454,593,668 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.62 | $4,454,593,668 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.62 | $4,454,593,668 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.62 | $4,454,593,668 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.62 | $4,454,593,668 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.62 | $4,454,593,668 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.65 | $4,474,803,122 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.66 | $4,474,815,347 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.66 | $4,474,826,930 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.66 | $4,474,826,930 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.66 | $4,474,826,930 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.66 | $4,474,826,930 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.66 | $4,474,826,930 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.66 | $4,474,826,930 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.66 | $4,474,826,930 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.66 | $4,475,398,680 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.66 | $4,474,857,013 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.66 | $4,474,857,013 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.66 | $4,474,857,013 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.66 | $4,474,857,013 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.66 | $4,474,857,013 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.66 | $4,473,979,539 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.66 | $4,473,979,539 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.64 | $4,477,677,288 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.64 | $4,477,677,288 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.64 | $4,477,677,288 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.64 | $4,477,677,288 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.64 | $4,477,677,288 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.64 | $4,477,677,288 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.64 | $4,477,677,288 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.64 | $4,477,677,288 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.64 | $4,477,677,288 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.64 | $4,477,677,288 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.64 | $4,477,677,288 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.64 | $4,477,677,288 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.64 | $4,477,677,288 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.64 | $4,477,677,288 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.66 | $4,477,676,154 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.66 | $4,477,676,154 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.66 | $4,477,676,154 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.66 | $4,477,676,154 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.66 | $4,477,676,154 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.67 | $4,477,676,154 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.67 | $4,480,630,321 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.68 | $4,481,971,387 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.68 | $4,481,971,387 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.68 | $4,481,971,387 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.68 | $4,481,971,387 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.55 | $4,475,412,141 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.55 | $4,475,412,141 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.55 | $4,484,651,994 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.55 | $4,484,651,994 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.54 | $4,485,664,882 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.54 | $4,485,664,882 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.52 | $4,485,664,882 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.42 | $4,487,024,882 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.43 | $4,487,184,882 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.43 | $4,488,424,882 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.43 | $4,488,424,882 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.43 | $4,488,424,882 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.43 | $4,488,424,882 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.43 | $4,488,424,882 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.42 | $4,489,257,402 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.42 | $4,489,257,402 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.42 | $4,489,257,402 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.43 | $4,489,256,314 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.43 | $4,489,256,314 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.43 | $4,489,256,314 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.43 | $4,487,702,331 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.37 | $4,464,524,952 | 13 / 17 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 21 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 10 recorded
1 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.