Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY)
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-07-08
$57.98+2.25%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $57.98. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $58 BMY trades at 9.8× p/e, below its 25× p/e peer median. Our $65 fair value sits above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $4.79/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $89.37 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $92.12 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $37.93 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $36.20 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $156.01 | 25.2 | 6.20 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $49.98 | 9.3 | 7.19 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $98.28 | 16.9 | 5.82 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $149.22 | 25.2 | 5.93 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $60.40 | 2.6 | 23.68 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $16.70 | 2.8 | 5.93 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $28.94 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $58.65 | 9.9 | 5.93 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $156.80 | 25.2 | 6.23 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $170.06 | 25.2 | 6.76 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $105.62 | 16.9 | 6.25 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $146.41 | 25.2 | 5.82 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $53.55 | 2.6 | 21.00 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $16.39 | 2.8 | 5.82 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $57.55 | 9.9 | 5.82 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $180.13 | 25.2 | 7.16 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $110.81 | 16.9 | 6.56 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $135.12 | 25.2 | 5.37 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $49.42 | 2.6 | 19.38 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $15.12 | 2.8 | 5.37 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $53.11 | 9.9 | 5.37 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.