Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY)
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-09-04
$66.82-1.87%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BMY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 6.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers
Review the full earnings evidenceWhy it matters: Getting approval would add more treatment choices for multiple myeloma. This would increase the pipeline's value.
Supportive ifFDA approval of mezigdomide before the PDUFA date of May 13, 2027.
Worry ifFDA delays or rejects the approval of mezigdomide.
Why it matters: Updates could provide insights into the success of key drugs and their market potential.
Watch forGood news on important trials for key pipeline drugs.
Also watch forBad news or delays in important trials for key pipeline drugs.
Why it matters: Eliquis brings in a lot of money. Changes could affect overall health.
Worry ifEliquis revenue growth slows down or drops in the next quarters.
Less concerning ifEliquis revenue growth stays strong or speeds up in the next quarters.
Why it matters: High R&D spending indicates strong investment in the pipeline. If it exceeds $3.0 billion, it may signal aggressive expansion.
Supportive ifR&D expenses exceed $3.0 billion in Q3.
Worry ifR&D expenses remain below $3.0 billion in Q3.
Why it matters: Keeping gross margin guidance is key for making money. A drop could mean pricing or cost problems.
Worry ifGross margin remains stable or improves compared to Q1 levels.
Less concerning ifGross margin declines from the 70.2% reported in Q1.
Why it matters: A big drop might show problems with BMY's older products. This could lower total revenue.
Worry ifLegacy Portfolio revenue declines worse than -5% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifLegacy Portfolio revenue decline is less than -5% year over year.
Why it matters: Good results could lead to a big new product approval. This would boost future sales.
Supportive ifPositive results from the Phase 3 trial for iberdomide are shared before August 17.
Worry ifTrial results are negative or delayed past the PDUFA date.
Why it matters: A slowdown in Growth Portfolio revenue growth may show weaker sales of key products.
Worry ifGrowth Portfolio revenue growth is reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifGrowth Portfolio revenue growth remains above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A decline in gross margin could indicate issues with cost management or product mix.
Worry ifGross margin reported below 69% on a GAAP basis.
Less concerning ifGross margin remains at or above 69% on a GAAP basis.
Why it matters: A drop in operating cash flow may show financial problems and affect spending.
Worry ifOperating cash flow was below $1.5 billion for the quarter.
Less concerning ifOperating cash flow remains above $1.5 billion for the quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$110 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $248 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,250 loss on $10,000 · 12.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.