Bitcoin Depot Inc (BTMCQ)
NASDAQFinancialsCapital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$0.02-75.31%
Close 2026-07-22 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsCapital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BTMCQ
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -63.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 0 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BTMCQ — legal / regulatory event
Dated 2026-05-18
of this Current Report. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. This information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), and is not incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company, whether made before or after the date hereof, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing. The information in this Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnish…
Why it matters: The outcome will determine how the company winds down its operations and sells assets. This is crucial for creditors and stakeholders.
Watch forThe court approves a plan. This plan helps creditors recover more of their assets.
Also watch forThe court rejects the plan. This causes a messy liquidation process.
Why it matters: A revenue drop worse than 40% would confirm ongoing challenges in the business. This could signal deeper issues in managing the decline.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $69.6M, indicating a decline worse than 40%.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue is over $69.6M. This shows better management of the decline.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact Bitcoin Depot's performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth in the financial sector drops below 15%.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays above 15% or improves.
Why it matters: New rules could change how Bitcoin Depot does business.
Worry ifNew state rules require stricter compliance for Bitcoin ATMs.
Less concerning ifNo new major rules for Bitcoin ATMs are announced.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$932 on $10,000 · ±9.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | Not available | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $9,375 loss on $10,000 · 93.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A revenue decline worse than 40% would indicate deeper issues in the business model.
Worry ifRevenue reported below $69.6M for any quarter in 2026.
Less concerning ifRevenue remains above $69.6M for any quarter in 2026.