CalciMedica Inc (CALC)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.17-1.36%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CALC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -85.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CALC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-11
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 11, 2026, CalciMedica, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 to this report, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liab…
Why it matters: Updates on cash will show financial health. This impacts funding for operations.
Supportive ifManagement says there will be enough cash through Q4 2026.
Worry ifManagement warns of possible cash shortfall before Q4 2026.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how well the company is doing. It will also share plans for the future.
Watch forAnnouncement of the next earnings date with positive guidance or outlook.
Also watch forAnnouncement of the next earnings date with negative guidance or no updates.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth rebounds, it could help CalciMedica.
Supportive ifHealth Care sector revenue growth speeds up to 9% or more.
Worry ifSector revenue growth keeps slowing below current levels.
Why it matters: The safety review results will affect the KOURAGE trial and future plans.
Watch forGood safety review results let the KOURAGE trial continue.
Also watch forNegative safety review results may cause delays or changes in the KOURAGE trial.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$443 on $10,000 · ±4.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,066 loss on $10,000 · 10.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $9,407 loss on $10,000 · 94.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The trial's progress will show how Auxora performs in this high-need area. Positive updates could boost confidence in the drug's potential.
Watch forEnrollment is back on for the KOURAGE trial. Safety data looks good with no harm.
Also watch forEnrollment pause continues or bad safety data from the trial.
Why it matters: Updates on cash will show if CalciMedica can fund its work and trials into 2027.
Supportive ifConfirmation that cash is enough to fund operations into the second half of 2027.
Worry ifReports showing cash reserves are not enough to support ongoing work or trials.
Why it matters: The IND submission for CM5480 is a big step for treating pulmonary hypertension.
Supportive ifCalciMedica announces the IND submission for CM5480 is on track for mid-2027.
Worry ifThe IND submission for CM5480 is delayed beyond mid-2027.
Why it matters: Higher net income shows good financial health and efficiency. This matters to investors.
Supportive ifNet income for Q2 2026 is positive or shows significant improvement from Q1 2026.
Worry ifNet income for Q2 2026 is negative or declines from Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Data may show Auxora works and help its use in pulmonary hypertension.
Supportive ifEarly clinical data from the Phase 1b trial shows Auxora helps breathing.
Worry ifTrial data shows no big improvement or negative results.
Why it matters: Feedback will help the important program for Auxora. This is a possible treatment for acute pancreatitis.
Supportive ifThe FDA gave positive feedback on the design of the Auxora program. This is for acute pancreatitis.
Worry ifNegative feedback or delays from the FDA could affect the program design.