CAT
Caterpillar Inc.NYSEIndustrialsFarm & Heavy Construction MachinerySnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, CAT has a composite score of 12.7 and a signal label of "mild favorable." This score is influenced by various factors, including a medium confidence level of 75.8 and a moderate risk label. Key drivers include macroeconomic conditions related to growth, labor, rates, and inflation. The current assessment is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.02
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $5.71 → $6.01 (+5.2% / 30d). 12 raised, 1 cut, 20 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 54% of analysts rate Buy.
10 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 3.5% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
4 material events in the last 24 months — top 4 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Focus on long-term value deliverygrowthmixed65% progressprovisional
1/29: “CEO: 'We enter the new year with strong momentum and a continued focus on delivering long-term value.'”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Caterpillar reported full-year sales and revenues of $67.6 billion, up 4% from $64.8 billion in 2024, indicating growth. However, operating profit margin declined from 20.2% in 2024 to 16.5% in 2025, suggesting challenges in maintaining profitability. The focus on long-term value delivery is newly emphasized, with limited substantive delivery this quarter.
- 2.Increase sales volumegrowthmixed65% progressprovisional
1/29: “Sales and revenues for the fourth quarter of 2025 were $19.1 billion, an 18% increase compared with $16.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Sales and revenues for the fourth quarter of 2025 were $19.1 billion, an 18% increase compared with $16.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024, indicating strong growth in sales volume. This aligns with management's focus on increasing sales volume, driven by higher equipment sales to end users.
- 3.Manage operating profit margincostmixed65% progressprovisional
1/29: “Operating profit margin was 13.9% for the fourth quarter of 2025, compared with 18.0% for the fourth quarter of 2024.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Operating profit margin declined from 18.0% in 2024-Q4 to 13.9% in 2025-Q4, despite an 18% increase in sales and revenues. This indicates challenges in managing costs and maintaining profitability, aligning with management's focus on managing operating profit margin amidst higher sales volume.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 46%; 252d 33%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −14%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLI) — 1.58 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 45/100, drawdown 72/100, beta 42/100, earnings vol —.
Calm + bullish setup — clean pre-earnings positioning pattern.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Focus on long-term value delivery
GrowthCaterpillar emphasizes delivering long-term value for customers and shareholders.
MixedNewly stated in 2025-Q4. Caterpillar reported full-year sales and revenues of $67.6 billion, up 4% from $64.8 billion in 2024, indicating growth. However, operating profit margin declined from 20.2% in 2024 to 16.5% in 2025, suggesting challenges in maintaining profitability. The focus on long-term value delivery is newly emphasized, with limited substantive delivery this quarter.
65%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'We enter the new year with strong momentum and a continued focus on delivering long-term value.'”Press releaseSource dated 2026-01-29Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-01-29provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q4Press release
“CEO: 'We enter the new year with strong momentum and a continued focus on delivering long-term value.'”
- #2
Increase sales volume
GrowthCaterpillar aims to increase sales volume, driven by higher equipment sales to end users.
MixedNewly stated in 2025-Q4. Sales and revenues for the fourth quarter of 2025 were $19.1 billion, an 18% increase compared with $16.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024, indicating strong growth in sales volume. This aligns with management's focus on increasing sales volume, driven by higher equipment sales to end users.
Sales and revenues for the fourth quarter of 2025 were $19.1 billion, an 18% increase compared with $16.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 202465%CEO/CFO:“Sales and revenues for the fourth quarter of 2025 were $19.1 billion, an 18% increase compared with $16.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-01-29Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-01-29provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Sales and revenues for the fourth quarter of 2025 were $19.1 billion, an 18% increase compared with $16.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024.”
- #3
Manage operating profit margin
CostCaterpillar is focused on managing operating profit margin amidst higher sales volume.
MixedNewly stated in 2025-Q4. Operating profit margin declined from 18.0% in 2024-Q4 to 13.9% in 2025-Q4, despite an 18% increase in sales and revenues. This indicates challenges in managing costs and maintaining profitability, aligning with management's focus on managing operating profit margin amidst higher sales volume.
Operating profit margin was 13.9% for the fourth quarter of 2025, compared with 18.0% for the fourth quarter of 202465%CEO/CFO:“Operating profit margin was 13.9% for the fourth quarter of 2025, compared with 18.0% for the fourth quarter of 2024.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-01-29Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-01-29provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q4Press release
“Operating profit margin was 13.9% for the fourth quarter of 2025, compared with 18.0% for the fourth quarter of 2024.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +13 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | +11 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | +10 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | +20 | fair | moderate |
BA Boeing | -4.8 | expensive | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30)-8.0 pts
- If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-308d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Caterpillar Inc. issued a press release reporting its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated into this
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 60 - 2026-04-1028d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of New Chief Financial Officer On April 8, 2026, Caterpillar Inc. (the “Company”) announced that, on April 7, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of the Company appointed Kyle Epley as the Company’s Chief Financial Officer, effective May 1, 2026, succeeding Andrew R.J. Bonfield. Mr. Bonfield will continue to serve as Chief Financ…
executive changeneutralscore 42 - 2026-01-293mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 29, 2026, Caterpillar Inc. issued a press release reporting its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated into this
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 7 - 2026-01-064mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Board Leadership Transition On January 6, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Caterpillar Inc. (the “Company”) announced the resignation of D. James Umpleby III as a member of the Board, effective April 1, 2026 (the “Effective Date”). Mr. Umpleby currently serves as the Executive Chairman of the Board and previously served as the Company’…
executive changeneutralscore 3 - 2025-08-288mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. Caterpillar Inc. (the “Company”) is providing an update relating to the estimated impact of tariffs on its financial results. Since the Company released its second quarter earnings on August 5, 2025, several additional clarifications and additional tariffs have been announced. These clarifications and additional tariffs will impact the Company’s financial results for the third quarter and the remainder of 2025. While the Company continues to take initial mitigating actions to re…
legal regulatorynegativescore 0
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.