CCL
CarnivalNYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, CCL has a composite score of 15.6, categorized as "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 79.1 and elevated market risk at 61.9. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as growth, rates, inflation, and labor. The assessment is provisional, reflecting the potential for changes based on upcoming guidance and sector trends.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.32
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.34 → $0.33 (-3.2% / 30d). 2 raised, 3 cut, 18 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 81% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 25.5% above current price.
1 positive, 3 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
9 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
- 2026-05-07CCL — legal / regulatory event — Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standar…impact 0.64
- 2026-05-07CCL — M&A activity — Changes in Control of Registrantimpact 0.32
- 2026-05-07CCL — capital allocation — Unregistered Sales of Equity Securitiesimpact 0.31
- 2026-05-07CCL — acquisition completedimpact 0.28
- 2026-05-07CCL — capital allocation — Material Modification to Rights of Security Holdersimpact 0.28
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Introduce PROPEL for long-term growthgrowthmixed65% progress
3/27: “CEO: 'Introducing PROPEL, a new set of long-term targets for earnings growth and shareholder returns by 2029.'”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Carnival introduced PROPEL to drive long-term growth with targets including over 50% EPS growth from 2025 and more than 40% of cash from operations distributed to shareholders. The initiative is newly launched, so financial impact is yet to be observed.
- 2.Achieve $7 billion in adjusted EBITDA for 2026growthon track96% progress
3/27: “CEO: 'We remain on track to deliver $7 billion in adjusted EBITDA this year.'”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Carnival targets $7 billion in adjusted EBITDA for 2026, reflecting strong demand and operational improvements. With adjusted EBITDA of $1.3 billion in Q1, the trajectory is positive but requires continued performance to meet the annual target.
- 3.Initiate $2.5 billion share buyback programcapital allocationmixed68% progress
3/27: “CFO: 'Boards approved an initial $2.5 billion share buyback program.'”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Carnival announced a $2.5 billion share buyback program to enhance shareholder value. The program reflects strong free cash flow generation, but its impact on financials will be observed in future quarters as the buyback progresses.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 62%; 252d 46%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −29%. Bad day move −4%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLY) — 0.10 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 23/100, drawdown 41/100, beta 10/100, earnings vol —.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Introduce PROPEL for long-term growth
GrowthLaunch PROPEL to drive earnings growth, shareholder distributions, and returns by 2029.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Carnival introduced PROPEL to drive long-term growth with targets including over 50% EPS growth from 2025 and more than 40% of cash from operations distributed to shareholders. The initiative is newly launched, so financial impact is yet to be observed.
65%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'Introducing PROPEL, a new set of long-term targets for earnings growth and shareholder returns by 2029.'”Press releaseSource dated 2026-03-27Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-03-27Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“CEO: 'Introducing PROPEL, a new set of long-term targets for earnings growth and shareholder returns by 2029.'”
- #2
Achieve $7 billion in adjusted EBITDA for 2026
GrowthTarget $7 billion in adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2026, reflecting strong demand and operational improvements.
On trackNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Carnival targets $7 billion in adjusted EBITDA for 2026, reflecting strong demand and operational improvements. With adjusted EBITDA of $1.3 billion in Q1, the trajectory is positive but requires continued performance to meet the annual target.
Adjusted EBITDA for 2026 is targeted at $7 billion96%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'We remain on track to deliver $7 billion in adjusted EBITDA this year.'”Press releaseSource dated 2026-03-27Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-03-27Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“CEO: 'We remain on track to deliver $7 billion in adjusted EBITDA this year.'”
- #3
Initiate $2.5 billion share buyback program
Capital allocationCommence a $2.5 billion share buyback program to enhance shareholder value.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Carnival announced a $2.5 billion share buyback program to enhance shareholder value. The program reflects strong free cash flow generation, but its impact on financials will be observed in future quarters as the buyback progresses.
68%CEO/CFO:“CFO: 'Boards approved an initial $2.5 billion share buyback program.'”Press releaseSource dated 2026-03-27Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-03-27Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“CFO: 'Boards approved an initial $2.5 billion share buyback program.'”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
37 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CCL Carnival | +16 | inexpensive | elevated |
AMZN Amazon | +16 | full | moderate |
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +0.4 | expensive | elevated |
HD Home Depot (The) | +14 | full | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | +14 | — | high |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-03-27)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-03-27)-8.0 pts
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-071d agoItem 3.01
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. The information set forth in the Introductory Note and
legal regulatorynegativescore 78 - 2026-05-071d agoItem 5.01
Changes in Control of Registrant. The information set forth in the Introductory Note and
mna activityneutralscore 78 - 2026-05-071d agoItem 2.01
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. The DLC Unification and Redomiciliation Transactions were implemented by way of a Court-approved scheme of arrangement under Part 26 of the UK Companies Act 2006 (the “Scheme of Arrangement”) between Carnival plc and the holders of Carnival plc Shares subject to the scheme of arrangement (the “Scheme Shareholders”). Pursuant to the Scheme of Arrangement, all Carnival plc Shares (other than certain excluded shares) were acquired by Carnival C…
mna activitypositivescore 69 - 2026-05-071d agoItem 3.02
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. The information set forth in the Introductory Note and
capital allocationnegativescore 51 - 2026-05-071d agoItem 1.02
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. The information set forth in the Introductory Note and
mna activitynegativescore 51
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.