Cadiz, Inc. (CDZI)
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated WaterSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.17+3.99%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated WaterSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CDZI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 513.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 31.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 482.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CDZI — CFO transition
Dated 2026-07-27
Chief Financial Officer — Stanley E. Speer: Mr. Stanley E. Speer is retiring as the Chief Financial Officer, and Jacinto J. Hernandez has been appointed to succeed him.
Why it matters: The court case result may impact the company's work and money.
Worry ifA good outcome in the court case could help Cadiz and boost investor confidence.
Less concerning ifBad news in the court case could hurt the company's reputation and finances.
Why it matters: Improving operating income and cash flow is important for Cadiz. It helps lower losses.
Worry ifOperating income is improving. It is getting closer to breaking even or making a profit.
Less concerning ifOperating income is still negative. It is getting worse, showing ongoing financial problems.
Why it matters: If utilities sector revenue growth picks up, it could benefit Cadiz's outlook.
Supportive ifUtilities sector revenue growth exceeds 6% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth stays below 6% year over year.
Why it matters: Sustained growth in baseline orders is crucial for Cadiz's revenue and overall financial health. A slowdown could signal deeper issues.
Worry ifBaseline orders growth remains above 70% year over year.
Less concerning ifBaseline orders growth falls below 50% year over year.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$256 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $645 loss on $10,000 · 6.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,694 loss on $10,000 · 56.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Securing agreements is vital for Cadiz's revenue and long-term contracts. It reflects demand for their water solutions.
Supportive ifFinalizing water supply and storage deals with public agencies in the next year.
Worry ifNot getting agreements or major delays in talks.
Why it matters: Finalizing this entity is key for funding and running the Mojave Groundwater Bank. It shows Cadiz is growing.
Supportive ifThey announced the completion of work with equity investors and the formation of the LLC.
Worry ifFurther delays or setbacks in the diligence process are reported.
Why it matters: Progress in energy and hydrogen projects could bring in more money and help Cadiz grow.
Supportive ifLook for news about new partnerships or contracts in energy and hydrogen projects.
Worry ifWatch for no major news or partnerships in energy and hydrogen areas.
Why it matters: Higher construction costs may affect project profits and how investors feel. Controlling these costs is crucial.
Worry ifLook for confirmation that construction costs stay within the agreed maximum price.
Less concerning ifReports of significant cost overruns beyond the agreed GMP of $218.9 million.
Why it matters: A successful Grant could help Cadiz grow and improve operations.
Supportive ifA press release will share progress on the Northern Pipeline work.
Worry ifDelays or setbacks in the implementation of the Right-of-Way Grant.
Why it matters: The lawsuit's result could change how the company runs and its finances.
Watch forA good ruling or settlement from the lawsuit filed on May 20, 2026.
Also watch forA bad ruling that harms operations or finances.
Why it matters: Better operating income is important for Cadiz. It helps reduce losses and shows better cost control.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income is better than last quarter. It is closer to breakeven.
Worry ifOperating income is still negative or gets worse compared to Q1.
Why it matters: The lawsuit's result could affect the company's work and money situation.
Worry ifA settlement or resolution of the lawsuit that is good for the company.
Less concerning ifMore legal problems or bad results from the lawsuit.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show revenue growth. They will also show how costs are managed.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth exceeding 20% year over year.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows ongoing net losses. It also shows declining revenue.
Why it matters: Hernandez's leadership may change Cadiz's money plans and growth ideas. His capital market experience may boost investor trust.
Supportive ifWatch for strong financial results or key news after Hernandez becomes CFO.
Worry ifWatch for ongoing cash flow problems or losses even with Hernandez in charge.
Why it matters: Financing is important for the Mojave Groundwater Bank project. Good financing shows Cadiz is growing.
Supportive ifFinancing agreements for the Mojave Groundwater Bank will be done in the next quarter.
Worry ifDelays or setbacks in financing agreements that push the timeline back.
Why it matters: The court's decision could change project costs and timelines for the Mojave Groundwater Bank.
Worry ifA good court ruling that supports the Lyles Agreement and lowers costs.
Less concerning ifA bad ruling that raises project costs or delays construction.
Why it matters: Better cash flow is key for Cadiz. It helps reduce losses and support growth.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations turns positive in Q3 2026.
Worry ifContinued negative cash flow from operations in Q3 2026.