Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Cadiz, Inc. (CDZI)
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated WaterSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.40-6.85%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated WaterSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CDZI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Improve cash from operations from negative $5.5M in 2026-Q1 | If cash burn improves from negative $5.5M in 2026-Q1, liquidity will strengthen. | Broken | cash flow remains below -$5M next 4 quarters | Cash from operations: $-6.648M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: reduce negative cash flow to less than -$2M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 13, 2026-6,648,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, speculative project-development business rather than an established, steady compounder. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: financing activity is tangible, but management execution and delivery remain mixed.
The valuation model indicates CDZI is expensive versus peers, with a sizable expectations gap, though confidence in that assessment is low. The market appears to give value to project optionality, but the evidence does not show that the major projects or ATEC growth are yet delivering meaningful financial results.
Near term, results may remain pressured: revenue fell from $1.632 million in the first quarter of 2026 to $979,000 in the second, and operating losses widened. The October financing supports project development, but ongoing losses, a run of earnings misses, and a high assessed risk of another near-term miss weigh on execution; current financials do not verify ATEC or Ranch project progress.
Over the next one to three years, the central question is whether CDZI can finance and construct the Mojave Groundwater Bank and turn its ATEC, energy, and hydrogen plans into measurable revenue or milestones. A guidance cut would add to near-term concern, while rate cuts or stronger results from water-utility peers could provide a sector tailwind but would not resolve company-specific delivery risk.
The long-term thesis offers project optionality, but it remains unproven against weak financial performance, ongoing losses, and mixed execution evidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Management targets robust baseline order growth and reducing net losses from negative $8.6M in 2026-Q1. |
| Broken |
| net losses worsen or remain below -$8M next 4 quarters |
Net income: $-11.374M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net losses improve to less negative than -$5M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 13, 2026-11,374,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve robust revenue growth near 82% in FY26 | A primary condition in Cadiz, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=82% YoY revenue growth. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 50% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.53 → $-0.53 · observed estimates
$0.02B → $0.02B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.53 | $19,400,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.53 | $19,400,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.53 | $19,400,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.53 | $19,400,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.53 | $19,400,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.51 | $28,580,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.53 | $19,400,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.53 | $19,400,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.51 | $28,580,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.51 | $28,580,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.53 | $19,400,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.53 | $19,400,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.53 | $19,400,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.53 | $19,400,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.48 | $19,816,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.48 | $28,511,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.48 | $19,816,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.48 | $19,816,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.48 | $19,816,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.48 | $19,816,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.48 | $19,816,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.48 | $19,816,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.48 | $19,816,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.48 | $19,816,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.48 | $19,816,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.48 | $19,816,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.48 | $19,816,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.48 | $19,816,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.49 | $17,116,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.49 | $17,116,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.49 | $17,116,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.49 | $17,116,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.49 | $17,116,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.49 | $17,116,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.49 | $17,116,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.53 | $17,010,500 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.