Certara, Inc. (CERT)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$7.94-2.34%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CERT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 31.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -5.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 37.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CERT — President transition
Dated 2026-08-04
President, Chief Commercial Officer — Leif E. Pedersen: Mr. Pedersen departed from his role as President, Chief Commercial Officer.
Why it matters: A new CFO can impact financial strategy and investor confidence. The transition is critical.
Watch forCertara announces the appointment of a new CFO by July 14, 2026.
Also watch forNo new CFO is appointed by the end of July 2026.
Why it matters: A new CFO can change how the company handles money after Gallagher left.
Watch forA new CFO is appointed before Gallagher's departure on July 14, 2026.
Also watch forNo new CFO is appointed by July 14, 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in bookings shows weaker demand. This may lead to long-term revenue problems.
Worry ifTotal bookings decline more than 5% YoY.
Less concerning ifTotal bookings grow or decline less than 5% YoY.
Why it matters: Service revenue trends will show if the company has fixed its execution problems. This affects growth.
Watch forService revenue grows year over year in Q2 2026.
Also watch forService revenue declines year over year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth shows problems for the business after the sale.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 0% compared to the same quarter last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth reported above 0% compared to the same quarter last year.
Why it matters: A margin drop below 29% shows cost issues during the restructuring.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin was below 29% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA margin was at or above 29% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: It is important to hire a new CFO quickly. This helps keep financial stability.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a new CFO before the end of July 2026.
Worry ifNo announcement of a new CFO by the end of July 2026.
Why it matters: Strong growth in software revenue shows the company is doing well with its plans.
Supportive ifSoftware revenue grew more than 5% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifSoftware revenue growth reported at or below 5% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$204 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $567 loss on $10,000 · 5.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,706 loss on $10,000 · 67.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.