CMI
CumminsNYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, CMI has a composite score of 10.3 and a signal label of "mild_favorable." The company momentum score increased significantly by 34.9 points, rising from -24.8 to 10.1. This change in momentum contributed to the overall improvement in the signal label from "mixed" to "mild_favorable." The analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.10
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $6.46 → $7.19 (+11.4% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 57% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 16.5% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
No recent events recorded.
Stated priorities
2 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase revenue by 8% to 11% in 2026growthon track94% progress
5/5: “Cummins is raising its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to be up 8% to 11%.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $8.3B in 2025-Q3 to $8.7B in 2025-Q4, indicating progress towards the 2026 target. However, the earnings miss in 2026-Q1 suggests challenges in maintaining this trajectory.
- 2.Increase EBITDA margin to 17.75% to 18.50% in 2026growthmixed65% progress
5/5: “EBITDA is now expected to be in the range of 17.75% to 18.50%, an increase from previous guidance.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The guidance for EBITDA margin has been raised, indicating a positive outlook. However, the financials do not provide specific EBITDA margin figures to verify progress, suggesting limited visibility into actual delivery.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 42%; 252d 32%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −15%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLI) — 1.55 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 47/100, drawdown 70/100, beta 45/100, earnings vol —.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- score change · company_momentum_scoreseverity 58
Company momentum rose by 34.9 points (from -24.8 to 10.1).
- label change · signal_labelseverity 20
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
As of 2026-05-08, the company momentum score for CMI rose by 34.9 points, changing from -24.8 to 10.1. Additionally, the signal label transitioned from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'. These changes indicate an improvement in company momentum and a more favorable signal label. The overall context remains provisional.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase revenue by 8% to 11% in 2026
GrowthNew since 2026-05-05Cummins aims to increase its full-year 2026 revenue by 8% to 11% based on current forecasts.
On trackStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $8.3B in 2025-Q3 to $8.7B in 2025-Q4, indicating progress towards the 2026 target. However, the earnings miss in 2026-Q1 suggests challenges in maintaining this trajectory.
94%CEO/CFO:“Cummins is raising its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to be up 8% to 11%.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-05Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-05Show history (2)
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“Cummins is raising its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to be up 8% to 11%.”
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Cummins projects full-year 2026 revenue to be in the range of up 3% to 8%.”
- #2
Increase EBITDA margin to 17.75% to 18.50% in 2026
GrowthNew since 2026-05-05Cummins aims to increase its EBITDA margin to between 17.75% and 18.50% for the full year 2026.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The guidance for EBITDA margin has been raised, indicating a positive outlook. However, the financials do not provide specific EBITDA margin figures to verify progress, suggesting limited visibility into actual delivery.
65%CEO/CFO:“EBITDA is now expected to be in the range of 17.75% to 18.50%, an increase from previous guidance.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-05Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-05Show history (2)
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“EBITDA is now expected to be in the range of 17.75% to 18.50%.”
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“EBITDA to be in the range of 17.0% and 18.0% of sales.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CMI Cummins | +10 | expensive | moderate |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +13 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | +11 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | +10 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | +20 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently RAISED as of 2026-05-05)-16 pts
- If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-3.7 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-053d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026 , Cummins Inc. (“Cummins,” “the Company,” “the registrant,” “we,” “our,” or “us”) issued the attached press release reporting its financial results for the first quarter of 2026, which is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject t…
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 73 - 2026-02-053mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 5, 2026 , Cummins Inc. (“Cummins,” “the Company,” “the registrant,” “we,” “our,” or “us”) issued the attached press release reporting its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025, which is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise sub…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 8
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.