COF
Capital OneNYSEFinancialsCredit ServicesSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, COF has a composite score of -5.6, indicating a mixed signal. The score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 73.7 and elevated risk, with notable weaknesses in momentum (-26.4) and macro factors (-7.7). Positive drivers include potential favorable changes from guidance raises and sector trends, while unfavorable scenarios involve guidance cuts and sector weakening. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.33
- Slope (norm)0.52
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $5.06 → $4.76 (-5.9% / 30d). 3 raised, 10 cut, 14 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 78% of analysts rate Buy.
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 25.7% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
1 material event in the last 24 months — top 1 listed below.
Stated priorities
Insufficient transcript history for this ticker.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 29%; 252d 32%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −31%. Bad day move −4%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLF) — 1.76 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 47/100, drawdown 37/100, beta 24/100, earnings vol —.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 0.0% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
67 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
COF Capital One | -5.6 | inexpensive | elevated |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway | +6.0 | — | moderate |
JPM JPMorgan Chase | -0.9 | full | low |
V Visa Inc. | +20 | — | low |
MA Mastercard | +15 | full | low |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)+6.6 pts
- If financials sector trend rises from +0.07 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-01-22)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-01-22)-8.0 pts
- If financials sector trend falls from +0.07 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2118d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 21, 2026, Capital One Financial Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. Copies of the Company’s press release and financial supplement are attached and furnished herewith as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 to this Form 8-K and are incorporated herein by reference. Note: Information in this report (including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2) furnished pursuant to
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 44 - 2026-04-2316d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. This current report on Form 8-K is filed for the purpose of filing the attached exhibit in connection with the prospectus supplement, dated April 23, 2026 (the “Resale Prospectus Supplement”), filed by Capital One Financial Corporation (the “Company”) with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which forms a part of the Company’s automatic shelf registration statement on Form S-3 (File No. 333-277813). The selling security holders referred to in the Resale Prospectus Supplement…
capital allocationneutralscore 36
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.