COIN
CoinbaseNASDAQFinancialsFinancial Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, COIN has a composite score of -20.1 and a signal label of "cautious." This score is influenced by a high market risk score of 83.3 and a momentum score of -61.8, indicating significant concerns. The analysis is provisional, reflecting uncertainty in the current assessment.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.98
- Slope (norm)0.25
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.85 → $0.48 (-43.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 17 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 61% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 19.4% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Divergence — fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
1 material event in the last 24 months — top 1 listed below.
Stated priorities
4 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Grow the Everything Exchangegrowthbehind0% progress
2/12: “CEO: 'Continuing to grow the Everything Exchange: one platform for all tradable assets.'”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. The Everything Exchange is a strategic growth initiative to include all tradable assets. However, financials do not yet show specific revenue or volume milestones achieved for this platform, indicating limited substantive delivery so far.
- 2.Scale stablecoins and payments infrastructureproductmixed0% progress
2/12: “CEO: 'Scaling stablecoins and payments infrastructure with deeper product integrations.'”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Stablecoin revenue was $364 million in Q4, up 3% Q/Q, driven by higher USDC balances. While this shows some progress, the broader infrastructure scaling impact is not yet fully reflected in financials.
- 3.Bring the world onchain through DeFi integrationsgrowthbehind0% progress
2/12: “CEO: 'Bringing the world onchain through DeFi integrations, scaling the Base App.'”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. While the initiative to drive onchain transactions is strategic, the financials do not yet show specific metrics or growth directly attributable to DeFi integrations or the Base App, indicating early stages of implementation.
- 4.Optimize operations for the AI eracostmixed65% progress
5/5: “Company announced a restructuring plan to optimize operations for the AI era.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The restructuring plan involves reducing the workforce by approximately 700 employees. While this indicates a strategic shift, the financial impact of these changes is not yet visible in the financials, suggesting early implementation.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 60%; 252d 72%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −66%. Bad day move −7%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLF) — 2.10 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 0/100, drawdown 0/100, beta 0/100, earnings vol —.
High-volatility growth — strong fundamentals + high realized vol. Typical day ±2.6%.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Grow the Everything Exchange
GrowthContinue to expand the Everything Exchange platform to include all tradable assets.
BehindNewly stated in 2025-Q4. The Everything Exchange is a strategic growth initiative to include all tradable assets. However, financials do not yet show specific revenue or volume milestones achieved for this platform, indicating limited substantive delivery so far.
0%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'Continuing to grow the Everything Exchange: one platform for all tradable assets.'”Earnings callSource dated 2026-02-12Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-12Show history (1)
- 2025-Q4Earnings call
“CEO: 'Continuing to grow the Everything Exchange: one platform for all tradable assets.'”
- #2
Scale stablecoins and payments infrastructure
ProductEnhance stablecoins and payments infrastructure with deeper product integrations.
MixedNewly stated in 2025-Q4. Stablecoin revenue was $364 million in Q4, up 3% Q/Q, driven by higher USDC balances. While this shows some progress, the broader infrastructure scaling impact is not yet fully reflected in financials.
0%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'Scaling stablecoins and payments infrastructure with deeper product integrations.'”Earnings callSource dated 2026-02-12Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-12Show history (1)
- 2025-Q4Earnings call
“CEO: 'Scaling stablecoins and payments infrastructure with deeper product integrations.'”
- #3
Bring the world onchain through DeFi integrations
GrowthDrive onchain transactions through DeFi integrations and scaling the Base App.
BehindNewly stated in 2025-Q4. While the initiative to drive onchain transactions is strategic, the financials do not yet show specific metrics or growth directly attributable to DeFi integrations or the Base App, indicating early stages of implementation.
0%CEO/CFO:“CEO: 'Bringing the world onchain through DeFi integrations, scaling the Base App.'”Earnings callSource dated 2026-02-12Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-12Show history (1)
- 2025-Q4Earnings call
“CEO: 'Bringing the world onchain through DeFi integrations, scaling the Base App.'”
- #4
Optimize operations for the AI era
CostNew since 2026-05-05Implement a restructuring plan to optimize operations for the AI era.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. The restructuring plan involves reducing the workforce by approximately 700 employees. While this indicates a strategic shift, the financial impact of these changes is not yet visible in the financials, suggesting early implementation.
65%CEO/CFO:“Company announced a restructuring plan to optimize operations for the AI era.”8-KSource dated 2026-05-05Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-05Show history (1)
- 2026-Q18-K
“Company announced a restructuring plan to optimize operations for the AI era.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
53 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
COIN Coinbase | -20 | expensive | high |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway | +6.0 | — | moderate |
JPM JPMorgan Chase | -0.9 | full | low |
V Visa Inc. | +20 | — | low |
MA Mastercard | +15 | full | low |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)+6.6 pts
- If financials sector trend rises from +0.07 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2023-01-10)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2023-01-10)-8.0 pts
- If financials sector trend falls from +0.07 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-071d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026 , Coinbase Global, Inc. (the “Company”) published a presentation related to its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 (the “Earnings Presentation”). In the Earnings Presentation, the Company also announced that it will be holding a conference call to discuss its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Earnings Presentation is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K…
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 77 - 2026-05-053d agoItem 2.05
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On May 5, 2026, Coinbase Global, Inc. (the “Company”) announced a restructuring plan (the “Plan”) to (i) manage its operating expenses in response to current market conditions and (ii) optimize the Company’s operations for the AI era. The Plan involves a reduction of the Company’s workforce by approximately 700 employees, representing approximately 14% of the Company’s global workforce as of May 1, 2026. The Company expects execution of the P…
product or strategy shiftneutralscore 57
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.