ConocoPhillips (COP)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$136.94-5.17%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
Research Workspace
Put COP beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Maintain and grow production levels near 2.33 MMBOED: Direct metric needs a verified mapping.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 10% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 41% growth a year, above the roughly 8% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskConocoPhillips must keep compounding its commercial LNG strategy to justify the price. Revenue growth is not accelerating, but the last two quarters beat estimates. The stock trades at 18 times earnings versus a 15 times peer median. The market is pricing in more growth than we forecast. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 22%. The primary production pillar is under pressure. The thesis comparison is not yet verified. Peer multiples imply a price about 41% below where it trades. The thesis is on watch. This read is provisional.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-11-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Trailing returns as of 2026-11-04. COP is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 30 analysts currently covering COP (as of Nov 2026).
Based on 11 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for COP in the last 4 months.
Current $136.94
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $136.94.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COP Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-11-05. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Oil & Gas Exploration & Production — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put COP next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Return 45% of cash from operations to shareholders
Dividend hike confirms capital return objective.
Advances: Return 45% of cash from operations to shareholders
Profit beat and dividend boost support thesis.
Advances: Return 45% of cash from operations to shareholders
Q3 profit beat validates operational performance.
Advances: Advance commercial LNG strategy
New LNG deal supports growth and commercial strategy.
Advances: Advance commercial LNG strategy
LNG supply deal supports commercial LNG strategy.
Advances: Manage capital expenditures around $12 billion annually
Sale could optimize capital allocation and focus on core assets.
Advances: Manage capital expenditures around $12 billion annually
Sale improves capital allocation flexibility and supports objectives.
Threatens: Advance commercial LNG strategy
New CFO may shift LNG and Willow project priorities.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.