COP
ConocoPhillipsNYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, COP has a signal label of "mixed" with a composite score of 8.0. This change from "mild_favorable" reflects a medium confidence level of 73.8. The top drivers influencing this score include macroeconomic factors such as inflation, labor, growth, and rates. The assessment is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.01
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $2.01 → $2.68 (+33.2% / 30d). 7 raised, 7 cut, 18 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 68% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 20.1% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree — analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
2 material events in the last 24 months — top 2 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Maintain production guidancegrowthbehind14% progress
4/30: “Full-year production is expected to be 2.295 to 2.325 MMBOED.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Production was 2.309 MBOED in 2026-Q1, slightly below the guidance range of 2.295 to 2.325 MMBOED. The trajectory shows limited progress towards meeting the full-year guidance.
- 2.Manage capital expenditurescapital allocationmixed44% progress
4/30: “Capital spending for 2026 is expected to be $12 to $12.5 billion.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Capital expenditures were $2.948 billion in 2026-Q1, indicating a controlled approach towards the annual guidance of $12 to $12.5 billion. The trajectory is consistent with the stated priority.
- 3.Achieve production growthgrowthwatchprovisional
11/6: “The company also expects 0 to 2% underlying production growth.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2025-Q3. Production was 2.309 MBOED in 2026-Q1, compared to 2.320 MBOED in 2025-Q4, showing a slight decline. The trajectory indicates limited progress towards achieving the targeted production growth.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 36%; 252d 29%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −15%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLE) — 0.09 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 51/100, drawdown 70/100, beta 9/100, earnings vol —.
Calm + bullish setup — clean pre-earnings positioning pattern.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- label change · signal_labelseverity 30
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
As of May 8, 2026, the signal label for COP changed from "mild_favorable" to "mixed." This reflects a shift in sentiment. Additionally, there are several unfavorable and favorable scenarios outlined, including a potential guidance cut, which is deemed unfavorable, and a favorable scenario if inflation state reverses to positive. The overall confidence level is medium, with a composite score of 8.0.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Maintain production guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Ensure production levels meet the guidance range of 2.295 to 2.325 MMBOED for 2026.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Production was 2.309 MBOED in 2026-Q1, slightly below the guidance range of 2.295 to 2.325 MMBOED. The trajectory shows limited progress towards meeting the full-year guidance.
14%CEO/CFO:“Full-year production is expected to be 2.295 to 2.325 MMBOED.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Full-year production is expected to be 2.295 to 2.325 MMBOED.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“The company’s 2026 production guidance is 2.33 to 2.36 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMBOED)”
- #2
Manage capital expenditures
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Control capital spending within the guidance range of $12 to $12.5 billion for 2026.
Behind →MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Capital expenditures were $2.948 billion in 2026-Q1, indicating a controlled approach towards the annual guidance of $12 to $12.5 billion. The trajectory is consistent with the stated priority.
44%CEO/CFO:“Capital spending for 2026 is expected to be $12 to $12.5 billion.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Capital spending for 2026 is expected to be $12 to $12.5 billion.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Guidance for 2026 includes capital expenditures of approximately $12 billion”
- #3
Achieve production growth
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Target underlying production growth of 0 to 2% for 2026.
Behind →WatchNewly stated in 2025-Q3. Production was 2.309 MBOED in 2026-Q1, compared to 2.320 MBOED in 2025-Q4, showing a slight decline. The trajectory indicates limited progress towards achieving the targeted production growth.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“The company also expects 0 to 2% underlying production growth.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-11-06Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“The company also expects 0 to 2% underlying production growth.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
50 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
COP ConocoPhillips | +8.0 | expensive | moderate |
XOM ExxonMobil | +5.8 | expensive | moderate |
CVX Chevron Corporation | +3.0 | expensive | moderate |
WMB Williams Companies | +4.1 | fair | moderate |
SLB Schlumberger | -13 | expensive | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If inflation state reverses from -0.34 (negative) to +0.34 (positive)+5.4 pts
- If energy sector trend rises from -0.03 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30)-8.0 pts
- If energy sector trend falls from -0.03 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-308d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, ConocoPhillips issued a press release announcing the company's financial and operating results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference. Additional financial and operating information about the quarter is furnished as Exhibit 99.2 hereto and incorporated herein by reference.
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 60 - 2026-02-053mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 5, 2026, ConocoPhillips issued a press release announcing the company's financial and operating results for both the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference. Additional financial and operating information about the quarter and full year is furnished as Exhibit 99.2 hereto and incorporated herein by reference.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 8
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.