Coya Therapeutics Inc (COYA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.76+4.62%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · COYA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 22.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -20.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 42.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
COYA — officer change
Dated 2026-08-07
Member of the Audit Committee — Mark H. Pavao: Mr. Pavao was appointed to the Audit Committee of the Board.
Why it matters: The health care sector is slowing. A rebound could benefit Coya's outlook.
Supportive ifHealth care sector revenue growth shows signs of re-accelerating back toward 10% or higher.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is slowing down. It is now lower than before.
Why it matters: New leaders can change the company's path. This affects how investors feel and focus.
Watch forThe new Executive Chairman shares a clear growth plan that excites investors.
Also watch forThe new Executive Chairman does not show a strong plan, which worries investors.
Why it matters: Completing enrollment is key to staying on track for the topline data readout in early 2027.
Supportive ifEnrollment in the ALSTARS Phase 2 trial is completed by the end of 2026.
Worry ifEnrollment is delayed beyond 2026, pushing back the timeline.
Why it matters: Updates on cash runway are important. They help fund clinical trials and operations.
Worry ifCoya has over $40 million in cash and equivalents after Q2.
Less concerning ifCash and equivalents fall below $40 million. This raises worries about funding.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$224 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $625 loss on $10,000 · 6.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,864 loss on $10,000 · 48.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Updates on cash runway will show if the company can fund operations into 2027.
Worry ifManagement says they have enough cash to last until 2027. They do not need more funding.
Less concerning ifManagement states cash runway is shorter than expected or needs new funding.
Why it matters: This data could support Coya's approach. It may also attract investor interest.
Supportive ifCoya shares positive in vivo data for COYA 303. This is from an inflammatory animal model.
Worry ifPublication shows no important results. It also shows negative findings.
Why it matters: Updates from the FDA could impact the timeline and perception of COYA 302's potential.
Supportive ifFDA gives more designations or approvals for COYA 302.
Worry ifFDA delays or denies further progress for COYA 302.
Why it matters: Earnings results can impact cash runway and investor confidence. An earnings beat signals strong performance.
Watch forCoya reports Q2 earnings that beat analyst expectations.
Also watch forCoya reports Q2 earnings that miss analyst expectations.
Why it matters: Biomarker data can prove COYA 302 works and help its development.
Supportive ifBiomarker data from the study in FTD will be announced in 2H 2026.
Worry ifNo biomarker data is released by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Achieving an earnings beat would support growth and investor confidence. It shows the company is on track.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings report shows results better than what analysts expected.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report falls short of analysts' expectations.
Why it matters: New data could support the clinical relevance of COYA 302 in ALS and AD.
Watch forNew single-cell proteomics data from ALS and AD trials is shared.
Also watch forNo new data is shared by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping track of cash is key. It helps fund trials and operations.
Worry ifCash and cash equivalents can fund operations. This is after the Phase 2 ALSTARS readout.
Less concerning ifCash levels drop a lot, which may mean funding problems.
Why it matters: Starting this study shows progress for COYA 302 in treating brain diseases.
Supportive ifCoya officially announces the start of the Phase 2 study for COYA 302 in FTD.
Worry ifThe initiation of the Phase 2 study is postponed or canceled.