Coya Therapeutics Inc (COYA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.81-8.77%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · COYA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -22.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers
COYA — litigation filed
Dated 2026-10-14
Other Events. On October 14, 2026, Coya Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing plans to initiate an open-label extension (“OLE”) of the Phase 2/3 ALSTARS Trial (NCT07161999) evaluating COYA 302 for the treatment of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (“ALS”). The Company plans to initiate the OLE in response to requests from ALSTARS investigators and study participants. The OLE will provide participants who complete the 48-week treatment period with the opportunity to…
Why it matters: Coya says its cash can last past the ALS data readout and into the second half of 2027. A shorter runway could add funding pressure.
Worry ifCoya reports cash and a runway plan that still funds operations past the Q1 2027 ALS data readout and into the second half of 2027.
Less concerning ifCoya reports a shorter runway that may not reach the Q1 2027 ALS data readout.
Why it matters: The ALSTARS results are a key test of COYA 302 in ALS. Clear benefit could support the drug’s case; weak results could hurt it.
Watch forThe Q1 2027 topline release meets its main trial goals and shows a clear benefit over placebo.
Also watch forThe release misses its main trial goals or shows no clear benefit over placebo.
Why it matters: These data can add support for the science behind COYA 302. Results that do not back the stated mechanism would raise doubt.
Watch forCoya reports single-cell proteomics results from its completed ALS and AD studies. The results support how it says the treatment works.
Also watch forThe data fail to support the stated mechanism, or Coya does not report them by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: The extension lets trial participants receive treatment after the 48-week study. Safety and dropout data can add context before the main results.
Watch forCoya reports that most extension participants stay in the study, with no new safety issue noted.
Also watch forCoya reports high dropout or a new safety issue in the extension.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$224 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $625 loss on $10,000 · 6.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,269 loss on $10,000 · 52.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The data can show whether COYA 302’s proposed immune effects appear in FTD patients. A lack of change would weaken that case.
Watch forCoya reports biomarker changes in its completed FTD study. The changes match how it says the treatment works.
Also watch forCoya reports no clear biomarker change, or delays the data past the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Starting the study would move COYA 302 into a second disease area. A delay would leave that plan untested.
Supportive ifCoya announces that the Phase 2 FTD study has started and gives its trial design.
Worry ifCoya reports that the study has not started by the end of 2026 or delays its start.