Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Coya Therapeutics Inc (COYA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.81-8.77%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for COYA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain cash runway into 2027 | The company has maintained cash runway into 2027, supporting ongoing development. | Intact | Cash reserves fall short of sustaining operations into second half of 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 11, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is speculative clinical-stage biotechnology, not an established earnings compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: COYA 302 milestones are progressing, but recent financial performance is weak and the business is loss-making.
COYA is valued at a premium to peers, while the evidence labels its pricing unjustified and shows a notable gap between expectations and fundamentals. The valuation model has medium confidence, so the exact expectations embedded in the valuation remain uncertain.
Near term, performance is likely to remain sensitive to trial updates and cash use. Enrollment in the Phase 2 ALS trial is proceeding as planned, with topline data expected in 1Q 2027, and management plans a Phase 2 FTD study in 2H 2026. Cash declined from $50.7 million in 1Q 2026 to $43.2 million in 2Q, though management says it can fund operations into the second half of 2027; recent litigation filings add risk.
The multi-year view hinges on COYA 302 clinical progress, including the planned ALS data readout and FTD study, and on maintaining the stated cash runway. Near-term setbacks could include a guidance cut or continued cash pressure; broader Healthcare strength may help the sector backdrop, but does not resolve company-specific clinical and funding risks.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, COYA remains a high-risk clinical development story with encouraging milestone progress but weak financial performance and uncertain valuation support. The thesis depends on clinical execution and cash runway. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Coya Therapeutics Inc's published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss less negative than -$1.83 per share. |
| Intact |
| EPS loss worsens beyond -$1.83 per share in FY27 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stabilize or improve revenue trajectory | A primary condition in Coya Therapeutics Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue decline less than -10% YoY or positive growth. | Improving | Revenue decline exceeds -10% YoY in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.39 → $-1.45 · observed estimates
$0.00B → $0.01B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.39 | $4,961,833 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.39 | $4,961,833 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.39 | $4,961,833 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.39 | $4,961,833 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.83 | $4,961,830 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.39 | $4,961,833 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.83 | $4,961,830 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.83 | $4,961,830 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.39 | $4,961,833 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.83 | $4,961,830 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.83 | $4,961,830 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.39 | $4,961,833 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.39 | $4,961,833 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.83 | $4,961,830 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-1.39 | $4,961,833 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.39 | $4,961,833 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.39 | $4,961,833 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.39 | $4,961,833 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-1.39 | $4,961,833 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.39 | $4,961,833 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.39 | $4,961,833 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.39 | $4,961,833 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.39 | $4,961,833 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.39 | $4,961,833 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.39 | $4,961,833 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.39 | $4,961,833 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.39 | $4,961,833 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.38 | $4,961,833 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.38 | $4,961,833 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.38 | $4,961,833 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.32 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.32 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.43 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.45 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.45 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.45 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.45 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.45 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.45 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.45 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.45 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.45 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.45 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.45 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.45 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.45 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.45 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.45 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.45 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.45 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.45 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.45 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.45 | $5,954,200 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.