CPAY
CorpayNYSEFinancialsSoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, CPAY has a composite score of 21.8, indicating a "mild favorable" signal. The score reflects strengths in management (72.7) and quality (76.3), while facing challenges in macro factors, particularly with a macro score of -7.7. The analysis is provisional and influenced by various drivers, including macro rates and growth.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.00
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Joint read: strong + robust historically delivered 80%+ NI-grew rate over T+1y in IT 2024–26 (small N).
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $6.26 → $6.25 (-0.2% / 30d). 4 raised, 5 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 79% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
1 material event in the last 24 months — top 1 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Achieve 16% revenue growth in 2026growthbehind14% progressprovisional
2/4: “Our 2026 outlook calls for 16% revenue and 22% adjusted earnings per share growth at the midpoint.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue for 2026 is expected to be $5,275 million at the midpoint, indicating a 16% growth target. However, revenue in 2025-Q4 was $764.8 million, showing limited progress towards the annual target so far.
- 2.Drive meaningful EPS growth in 2026growthbehind14% progressprovisional
2/4: “We expect full year 2026 organic revenue growth of 10%, continued tight expense management and our fourth quarter share repurchases to drive meaningful 2026 adjusted earnings per share growth.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EPS for 2026 is expected to be $20.79 at the midpoint. EPS in 2025-Q3 was $3.91, indicating a need for significant growth to meet the target. Progress appears limited so far.
- 3.Reaffirm first quarter 2026 guidanceothermixed65% progress
4/27: “The Company is presenting to institutional credit investors and is reaffirming its first quarter 2026 guidance.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Corpay reaffirmed its first quarter 2026 guidance, but specific financial outcomes for the quarter are not detailed in the available data, making it difficult to assess delivery against this priority.
Guidance track record
Last 4 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-06-30 | $1.88 | $2.57 | unclassifiable |
| 2019-06-30 | $2.74 – $2.84 | $2.85 | beat |
| 2024-12-31 | $4.28 – $4.48 | $3.44 | miss |
| 2025-03-31 | $3.38 – $3.48 | $3.40 | inside |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 44%; 252d 38%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −28%. Bad day move −4%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLF) — 1.35 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 37/100, drawdown 44/100, beta 65/100, earnings vol —.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 33% of the last 3 guided quarters · -6.7% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Achieve 16% revenue growth in 2026
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Corpay aims to achieve a 16% revenue growth for the fiscal year 2026.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue for 2026 is expected to be $5,275 million at the midpoint, indicating a 16% growth target. However, revenue in 2025-Q4 was $764.8 million, showing limited progress towards the annual target so far.
14%CEO/CFO:“Our 2026 outlook calls for 16% revenue and 22% adjusted earnings per share growth at the midpoint.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-04Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Our 2026 outlook calls for 16% revenue and 22% adjusted earnings per share growth at the midpoint.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“We are raising our 2025 outlook as a result of our second quarter beat...”
- #2
Drive meaningful EPS growth in 2026
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Corpay aims to drive significant EPS growth for the fiscal year 2026.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EPS for 2026 is expected to be $20.79 at the midpoint. EPS in 2025-Q3 was $3.91, indicating a need for significant growth to meet the target. Progress appears limited so far.
14%CEO/CFO:“We expect full year 2026 organic revenue growth of 10%, continued tight expense management and our fourth quarter share repurchases to drive meaningful 2026 adjusted earnings per share growth.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-04Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“We expect full year 2026 organic revenue growth of 10%, continued tight expense management...”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“We are raising our 2025 outlook as a result of our second quarter beat...”
- #3
Reaffirm first quarter 2026 guidance
OtherNew since 2026-05-04Corpay reaffirms its guidance for the first quarter of 2026.
Watch →MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Corpay reaffirmed its first quarter 2026 guidance, but specific financial outcomes for the quarter are not detailed in the available data, making it difficult to assess delivery against this priority.
65%CEO/CFO:“The Company is presenting to institutional credit investors and is reaffirming its first quarter 2026 guidance.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-27Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“The Company is presenting to institutional credit investors and is reaffirming its first quarter 2026 guidance.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CPAY Corpay | +22 | fair | moderate |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway | +6.0 | — | moderate |
JPM JPMorgan Chase | -0.9 | full | low |
V Visa Inc. | +20 | — | low |
MA Mastercard | +15 | full | low |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)+6.6 pts
- If financials sector trend rises from +0.07 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently RAISED as of 2026-05-07)-16 pts
- If financials sector trend falls from +0.07 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-3.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-071d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Corpay, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1, which is incorporated by reference in its entirety. The information in this item, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished, not filed. Accordingly, the information in this item will not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement…
earnings preannouncement—score 64 - 2026-04-2712d agoItem 7.01
Regulation FD Disclosure. On April 27, 2026, Corpay, Inc. (the “Company”) is presenting to institutional credit investors and is reaffirming its first quarter 2026 guidance, as previously disclosed on Form 8-K as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on February 4, 2026. This Form 8-K contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Statements that are not historical facts, including statements about Corpay’s beliefs, assumptions, expectations…
mna activitypositivescore 39
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.