Copart (CPRT)
NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$32.48-0.43%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CPRT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers
CPRT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-09-10
of Form 8-K, “Results of Operations and Financial Condition.” This information and the exhibit attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date of this report, regardless of any general incorporation language in the filing, except as shal…
Why it matters: Copart said the ACV deal can speed revenue growth. The first reports with ACV results will test that claim.
Supportive ifIn a full quarter with ACV included, Copart revenue grows faster year over year than its 2.4% Q4 2026 rate.
Worry ifIn a full quarter with ACV included, Copart revenue growth stays at or below 2.4% year over year.
Why it matters: Copart said ACV would not add to earnings in the first full year. It said the deal would add to earnings in fiscal 2028 and later.
Supportive ifCopart reports that ACV lifts diluted earnings per share in fiscal 2028 versus fiscal 2027.
Worry ifCopart reports that ACV does not lift diluted earnings per share in fiscal 2028, or delays that goal.
Why it matters: Copart cited savings and new sales across its businesses. Reported results can show whether those gains offset the costs of joining the companies.
Watch forCopart reports lower costs or added sales tied to ACV, while gross profit rises year over year.
Also watch forCopart reports no ACV cost or sales gains, while gross profit falls year over year.
Why it matters: Q4 revenue grew 2.4%, but gross profit fell 5.5% and diluted earnings per share fell 14.6%. The November 19 report can show if that gap persists.
Worry ifOn November 19, Copart reports Q1 fiscal 2027 diluted earnings per share below $0.35 from a year earlier.
Less concerning ifOn November 19, Copart reports Q1 fiscal 2027 diluted earnings per share at least as high as a year earlier.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$135 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $327 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,869 loss on $10,000 · 38.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Copart's fiscal 2026 revenue rose just 0.4%. A faster gain would show stronger growth, even as the sector faces a headwind.
Supportive ifOn November 19, Copart reports Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue growth above its Q4 2026 rate of 2.4% year over year.
Worry ifOn November 19, Copart reports Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue growth at or below 0.4% year over year.