Copart (CPRT)
NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$33.72+0.42%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CPRT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 22 industry peers
CPRT — CEO transition
Dated 2026-06-29
CEO — Jeffrey Liaw: Jeffrey Liaw is stepping down as CEO and will be succeeded by A. Jayson Adair.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into revenue and income trends. This is critical for assessing Copart's performance.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue and net income growth compared to the previous quarter.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue and net income decline compared to the previous quarter.
Why it matters: Stable revenue shows the company keeps its market position. This helps investors feel good about growth.
Supportive ifRevenue remains stable or grows year over year in the next earnings report.
Worry ifRevenue declines year over year in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: If sector growth picks up, it can benefit Copart's revenue. It shows a healthier market.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth is over 10% year over year. This shows recovery.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is under 5% year over year. This shows slow growth.
Why it matters: A smooth change can keep things stable. Disruption could harm operations.
Watch forCompany performance improves after the change with new CEO Jay Adair.
Also watch forPerformance metrics drop after the CEO change.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$137 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $313 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,444 loss on $10,000 · 44.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income is important for Copart's profits. A decline would cause worries.
Worry ifQ3 operating income grew compared to last year. This shows management cares about profits.
Less concerning ifQ3 operating income declines year over year or grows less than 2%.
Why it matters: CEO changes can impact company plans and how investors feel.
Watch forGood performance numbers after the CEO change.
Also watch forBad performance numbers after the CEO change.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth is important for investor trust. It shows the business is healthy.
Supportive ifQ3 net income is over $400 million. This confirms strong performance.
Worry ifQ3 net income is below $350 million. This raises worries about profits.
Why it matters: Details on the share buyback program could signal management's confidence in the company's value. This can impact investor sentiment.
Supportive ifCopart announces the volume and financial impact of the share buyback program.
Worry ifNo news or details are given about the share buyback program.
Why it matters: This growth would confirm management's focus on maintaining stable revenue. It shows the company's resilience in a maturing sector.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported above $1.24 billion.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $1.24 billion.
Why it matters: A drop in net income shows ongoing problems with making money, even with steady revenue.
Worry ifQ3 net income reported below $400 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income reported above $400 million.
Why it matters: Stable revenue growth is key to Copart's long-term success. A drop could signal deeper issues.
Worry ifRevenue growth in Q3 should be at least 2% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth drops below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means the company is controlling costs. It is also growing profit.
Supportive ifOperating income in Q3 should be at least $464 million.
Worry ifOperating income is less than $450 million.
Why it matters: A buyback can signal confidence in the company’s future and support share prices.
Supportive ifThe company announced a share buyback program. It includes details on volume and timing.
Worry ifNo announcement or details provided on the share buyback program.