Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-07-31 · fmp
Copart (CPRT)
NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$32.48-0.43%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.77 → 1.77 EPS · FY ending Jul 31, 2028 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CPRT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Smooth CEO transition with stable management execution | New leadership is a risk but management is stable. | Improving | significant negative news on CEO transition or guidance cuts | Qualitative: No negative guidance; M&A completed ACV acquisition completed Oct 16. CEO compensation disclosed, no personnel change. No guidance cuts reported. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-07-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 19, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CPRT is a quality-sensitive cyclical business rather than a clear turnaround, with a multi-year view centered on its recent financial performance and expansion through the ACV acquisition. The thesis is intact, while the latest signal has improved from mixed to mildly favorable; confidence is medium.
The valuation evidence calls CPRT cheap versus peers, though the model shows a valuation premium relative to peers and a negative expectations gap. Pricing is tagged as justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to an unusually fragile setup.
Near-term results face risk from recent earnings misses and a weakening jobs trend, while the broader sector backdrop is a headwind. The ACV acquisition is a newly stated priority, but post-close results are not yet available to assess its financial contribution; management’s revenue and operating-income priorities are also not established in the supplied evidence.
The multi-year view partly hinges on whether the ACV acquisition delivers the expected growth and earnings contribution. Near-term sector signals matter too: continued strength from bellwethers could support the industrials backdrop, while weaker results or a further weakening jobs trend could increase pressure on cyclical businesses.
CPRT’s long-term thesis remains intact, with a cheap-versus-peers valuation signal offset by elevated risk, a sector headwind, and limited evidence so far on acquisition delivery. The 1-to-3-year view hinges on execution and whether industry conditions stabilize. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Operating income grows from $426 million to $464 million. |
| Broken |
| operating income falls below $426 million |
Operating income: $368.904M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $460 million quarterly. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Sep 29, 2026368,904,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The transaction is expected to be neutral on Copart’s earnings per share in the first full year of ownership and accretive in fiscal 2028 and beyond.” Operating income was $368.904 million in 2026-Q4. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Maintain stable revenue near $1.24 billion quarterly | Copart keeps stable revenue near $1.24 billion per quarter. | Improving | quarterly revenue falls below $1.16 billion | Revenue: $1.152B FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.23 billion quarterly. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Sep 29, 20261,152,439,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.85 → $1.77 · observed estimates
$5.12B → $5.37B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | $1.85 | $5,115,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.85 | $5,115,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.85 | $5,115,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.85 | $5,115,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.85 | $5,115,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.85 | $5,115,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.85 | $5,115,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.85 | $5,115,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.85 | $5,115,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.85 | $5,115,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.85 | $5,115,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.85 | $5,115,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.85 | $5,115,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.85 | $5,115,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.85 | $5,115,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.85 | $5,115,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.85 | $5,115,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.85 | $5,115,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.85 | $5,115,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.85 | $5,115,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.85 | $5,115,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.85 | $5,115,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.85 | $5,115,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.85 | $5,115,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.85 | $5,115,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.85 | $5,115,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.85 | $5,115,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.85 | $5,115,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.85 | $5,115,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.85 | $5,115,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.85 | $5,115,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.85 | $5,115,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.85 | $5,115,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.85 | $5,115,650,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.82 | $5,085,433,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.82 | $5,085,433,333 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.82 | $5,085,433,333 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.82 | $5,085,433,333 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.82 | $5,085,433,333 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.82 | $5,085,433,333 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.82 | $5,085,433,333 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.81 | $5,097,655,400 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.78 | $5,140,486,167 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.78 | $5,140,486,167 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.78 | $5,140,486,167 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.78 | $5,140,486,167 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.78 | $5,156,308,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.77 | $5,116,144,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.77 | $5,116,144,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.77 | $5,116,144,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.77 | $5,116,144,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.77 | $5,116,144,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.77 | $5,116,144,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.77 | $5,116,144,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.77 | $5,116,144,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.77 | $5,116,144,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.77 | $5,116,144,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.77 | $5,116,144,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.77 | $5,116,144,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.78 | $5,245,269,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.78 | $5,245,269,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.78 | $5,245,269,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.78 | $5,245,269,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.78 | $5,245,269,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.78 | $5,245,294,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.77 | $5,245,294,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.77 | $5,245,294,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.77 | $5,245,294,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.77 | $5,245,294,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.77 | $5,245,294,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.77 | $5,245,294,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.77 | $5,245,294,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.77 | $5,245,294,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.77 | $5,245,294,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.77 | $5,245,294,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.77 | $5,245,294,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.77 | $5,245,294,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.77 | $5,245,294,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.77 | $5,245,294,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.77 | $5,245,294,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.77 | $5,245,294,500 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.77 | $5,367,574,921 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.77 | $5,367,574,921 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.77 | $5,367,574,921 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.77 | $5,367,574,921 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.77 | $5,367,574,921 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.77 | $5,367,574,921 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.77 | $5,367,574,921 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.77 | $5,367,574,921 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.77 | $5,367,574,921 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.77 | $5,367,574,921 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.77 | $5,367,574,921 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.77 | $5,367,574,921 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.77 | $5,367,574,921 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.77 | $5,367,574,921 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.77 | $5,367,574,921 | 4 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.