Cardiff Oncology, Inc. (CRDF)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.76-13.07%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CRDF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 238.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| -32.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 271.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers
CRDF — officer change
Dated 2026-10-27
Chief Medical Officer — Dr. Roger Sidhu: The Chief Medical Officer separated from the company in a mutually agreed transition and was immediately replaced by an interim CMO.
Why it matters: The Phase 3 trial is Cardiff’s next major step for onvansertib. A start on time would show the program is moving ahead.
Supportive ifCardiff starts the registrational Phase 3 trial in first-line RAS-mutated mCRC by March 31, 2027.
Worry ifCardiff reports that the Phase 3 start has slipped past Q1 2027 or that the trial is not ready to begin.
Why it matters: The FDA meeting set key design points, including a 30 mg dose with FOLFIRI/bev. Clear trial details can show whether Cardiff has a workable plan.
Supportive ifCardiff shares Phase 3 details that keep the 30 mg dose and FOLFIRI/bev regimen, and reports no new FDA design issue.
Worry ifCardiff reports a change to the chosen dose or regimen. Or FDA feedback calls for a delay or major trial redesign.
Why it matters: The arm’s median PFS was still not reached in October. Updated results can show if the early benefit lasts over time.
Watch forA new CRDF-004 update shows median PFS is still not reached in the 30 mg onvansertib plus FOLFIRI/bev arm. Patients remain on treatment beyond 18 months.
Also watch forA new CRDF-004 update says median PFS has been reached. Or it shows weaker PFS than the earlier comparison with standard care.
Why it matters: The March report said cash could fund operations into Q1 2027. Phase 3 plans make the next cash update important.
Worry ifA cash update says Cardiff has enough funds to operate through the Q1 2027 Phase 3 start without new financing.
Less concerning ifA cash update says funds may run out before the Phase 3 start. Or Cardiff announces funding for near-term operations.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$249 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $713 loss on $10,000 · 7.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,494 loss on $10,000 · 74.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The September deal settled the dispute and changed the license terms. A court dismissal would confirm that the claims are closed.
Supportive ifA court filing shows all claims in Cardiff Oncology v. Nerviano dismissed with prejudice, as the parties agreed to request.
Worry ifA court filing shows the claims are still open. Or Cardiff or Nerviano reports a new license or settlement dispute.