Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Cardiff Oncology, Inc. (CRDF)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.76-13.07%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CRDF yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
complete strategic leadership review and restructuring | The company is addressing litigation with Nerviano Medical Sciences and undergoing leadership restructuring. | Under Pressure | continued leadership turnover or unclear strategy by end 2026 | CMO turnover (1) vs 0; Strategy unclear CMO departed Oct 2026; litigation settled Sept 2026; William Blair downgrade Aug 2026. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is speculative clinical-stage growth, not an established earnings compounder: the company is loss-making, with high risk and low confidence in the valuation model. The long-term thesis is in a watch state, and recent financial performance is below its industry cohort without a fresh break in the thesis.
The valuation model indicates CRDF is expensive versus peers, with an expectations gap linked to optionality, meaning value assigned to possible future outcomes. The snapshot labels that setup unjustified, but its fragility tier is low because the evidence does not show the full combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and turbulence.
Near term, the company is likely to remain loss-making: recent quarterly revenue was small relative to operating losses, although losses narrowed from the first to the second quarter of 2026. Management plans to begin Phase 3 onvansertib testing in first-line RAS-mutated colorectal cancer in 2027-Q1, but supplied disclosures do not establish trial progress or provide the detailed CRDF-004 data and registrational plans previously flagged as priorities. The next call is a key risk because a guidance cut is identified as a meaningful negative; the near-term miss risk is elevated but only moderately supported.
The multi-year view hinges on clinical execution, clearer Phase 2 evidence, and progress toward the planned Phase 3 start. Limited delivery on previously stated data and research priorities leaves an important evidence gap. Near term, weaker employment data could weigh on healthcare names, while continued strong results and guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CRDF's thesis remains dependent on turning ongoing research into clear clinical evidence, with high business risk and limited financial support today. Recent litigation filings and the gap in promised disclosures add uncertainty. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company is addressing litigation with Nerviano Medical Sciences and undergoing leadership restructuring. |
| Recovered |
| litigation unresolved or adverse rulings by end 2026 |
Litigation resolved via settlement agreement on 2026-09-14 8-K filed Sept 14, 2026 confirms settlement agreement resolving Cardiff v. Nerviano litigation. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
share detailed Phase 2 CRDF-004 data and registrational plans | Cardiff Oncology aims to share detailed Phase 2 CRDF-004 data and registrational plans. | Improving | no detailed Phase 2 data or registrational plans shared by end 2026 | Qualitative: Phase 3 path cleared vs End-2026 target Cardiff Oncology announced clearing the trial path for Phase 3 registrational trial in first-line RAS-mutated mCRC. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
stabilize or grow revenue from 2027 | A primary condition in Cardiff Oncology, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is revenue declines less than 10% in 2027 vs 2026. | Broken | revenue declines more than 10% in 2027 vs 2026 | Revenue: $104,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: revenue declines less than 10% in 2027 vs 2026. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 11, 2026104,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.81 → $-0.61 · observed estimates
$0.00B → $0.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.81 | $189,290 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.81 | $189,290 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.81 | $189,290 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.81 | $189,290 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.81 | $189,290 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.81 | $189,290 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.82 | $189,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.82 | $189,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.82 | $189,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.81 | $189,290 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.81 | $189,290 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.82 | $189,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.81 | $189,290 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.81 | $189,290 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.82 | $189,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.81 | $189,290 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.81 | $189,290 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.82 | $189,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.81 | $189,290 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.81 | $189,290 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.74 | $189,290 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.82 | $189,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.82 | $189,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.82 | $189,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.82 | $189,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.82 | $189,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.82 | $189,286 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.64 | $189,286 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.64 | $189,286 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.64 | $189,286 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.64 | $189,286 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.64 | $189,286 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.64 | $189,286 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.64 | $189,286 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.64 | $189,286 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.64 | $189,286 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.66 | $265,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.66 | $265,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.66 | $265,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.66 | $265,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.66 | $265,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.66 | $265,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.66 | $265,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.66 | $265,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.66 | $265,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.66 | $265,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.66 | $265,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.66 | $265,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.66 | $265,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.66 | $265,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.66 | $265,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.66 | $265,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.66 | $265,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.66 | $265,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.61 | $320,833 | 4 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.