CRWD
CrowdStrikeNASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, CRWD has a composite score of -7.2, indicating a mixed signal. The score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 75.6 and an elevated risk label. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as rates, growth, inflation, and labor, with a notable unfavorable outlook if next-quarter guidance is cut or if the information technology sector trend weakens.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share-0.89
- Slope (norm)-0.49
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Buyback / dividend activity on weakening fundamentals — historically a value-trap pattern (48% T+1y positive return vs 69% baseline in IT 2024-26).
Why this setup
EPS estimate $1.16 → $1.16 (+0.3% / 30d). 15 raised, 19 cut, 43 covering analysts.
2 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 79% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 18.6% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
5 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Achieve $20 billion ARRgrowthmixed65% progressprovisional
12/29: “The Companys ambition to achieve $20 billion in annual recurring revenue ( ARR ).”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The financials do not provide specific ARR figures, but the ambition is clear. With revenue guidance for FY27 set between $5,867.6 million and $5,927.6 million, the trajectory towards $20 billion ARR is ambitious and requires significant growth acceleration.
- 2.Align CEO incentives with growthtalentmixed65% progress
4/20: “Aligning Mr. Sentonass interests with those of the Companys stockholders through performance-based compensation.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The alignment of CEO incentives with growth is a strategic move to drive long-term performance. However, the financials do not yet reflect the impact of this alignment, as net income remains negative in recent quarters.
- 3.Increase FY27 revenuegrowthmixed65% progress
3/3: “Full Year FY27 Guidance... Total revenue $5,867.6 - $5,927.6 million.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Revenue guidance for FY27 is set between $5,867.6 million and $5,927.6 million. This represents a growth target, but actual revenue figures for recent quarters are not provided, making it difficult to assess current trajectory.
Guidance track record
Last 8 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-07-31 | $0.27 – $0.28 | $0.36 | beat |
| 2023-04-30 | $0.50 – $0.51 | $0.57 | beat |
| 2023-07-31 | $0.54 – $0.57 | $0.74 | beat |
| 2024-04-30 | $0.89 – $0.90 | $0.93 | beat |
| 2024-07-31 | $0.98 – $0.99 | $1.04 | beat |
| 2024-10-31 | $0.80 – $0.81 | $0.93 | beat |
| 2025-07-31 | $0.82 – $0.84 | $-0.31 | miss |
| 2025-10-31 | $0.93 – $0.95 | $0.96 | beat |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 51%; 252d 43%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −37%. Bad day move −4%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLK) — 0.09 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 28/100, drawdown 26/100, beta 9/100, earnings vol —.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 88% of the last 8 guided quarters · -4.0% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Achieve $20 billion ARR
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04CrowdStrike aims to achieve $20 billion in annual recurring revenue.
On track →MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. The financials do not provide specific ARR figures, but the ambition is clear. With revenue guidance for FY27 set between $5,867.6 million and $5,927.6 million, the trajectory towards $20 billion ARR is ambitious and requires significant growth acceleration.
65%CEO/CFO:“The Companys ambition to achieve $20 billion in annual recurring revenue ( ARR ).”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-12-29Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“The Companys ambition to achieve $20 billion in annual recurring revenue ( ARR ).”
- #2
Align CEO incentives with growth
TalentNew since 2026-05-04CEO incentives are aligned with the company's long-term growth strategy.
Watch →MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. The alignment of CEO incentives with growth is a strategic move to drive long-term performance. However, the financials do not yet reflect the impact of this alignment, as net income remains negative in recent quarters.
65%CEO/CFO:“Aligning Mr. Sentonass interests with those of the Companys stockholders through performance-based compensation.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-20Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Aligning Mr. Sentonass interests with those of the Companys stockholders through performance-based compensation.”
- #3
Increase FY27 revenue
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04CrowdStrike aims to increase its revenue for fiscal year 2027.
On track →MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Revenue guidance for FY27 is set between $5,867.6 million and $5,927.6 million. This represents a growth target, but actual revenue figures for recent quarters are not provided, making it difficult to assess current trajectory.
65%CEO/CFO:“Full Year FY27 Guidance... Total revenue $5,867.6 - $5,927.6 million.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-03-03Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Full Year FY27 Guidance... Total revenue $5,867.6 - $5,927.6 million.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
P/E over the last 5 years
17 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CRWD CrowdStrike | -7.2 | expensive | elevated |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | +20 | full | moderate |
AAPL Apple Inc | +19 | full | moderate |
MSFT Microsoft | +27 | fair | elevated |
AVGO Broadcom | +11 | expensive | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If information_technology sector trend rises from +0.08 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-03-03)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-03-03)-8.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
- If information_technology sector trend falls from +0.08 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2018d agoItem 5.02
is incorporated herein by reference. Leading CrowdStrike Through the Next Stage of Growth The Board approved the Award to incentivize achievement of CrowdStrike’s long-term growth strategy by (i) aligning Mr. Sentonas’s interests with those of the Company’s stockholders through performance-based compensation tied directly to meaningful stock price outperformance, and (ii) providing a compelling incentive for Mr. Sentonas to continue to lead CrowdStrike as it executes on its ambition to achiev…
executive changeneutralscore 37 - 2026-04-061mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On April 6, 2026, the Company announced that its Board of Directors has approved the repurchase of up to an additional $500 million of the Company’s common stock, bringing the Company’s total repurchase authorization to $1.5 billion (together, the “Share Repurchase Program”). Under the Share Repurchase Program, the Company has repurchased 413,130 shares of its outstanding Class A common stock at an average price of $364.57 per share, for an aggregate purchase price of $150.6 mil…
capital allocationpositivescore 25 - 2026-03-032mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 3, 2026, CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended January 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 14
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.