Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. (CTBI)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$69.35-1.92%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.50 → 6.48 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CTBI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dividend per share maintained at $0.53 | The company also keeps dividends steady at $0.53 per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.53 | Dividend per share: $0.53 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.53 USD per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 20260.53 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CTBI is a regional bank with a measured, earnings-led multi-year view rather than a rapid-growth profile. The thesis is intact, but mixed progress on loan quality and expense control, alongside a recent earnings miss, tempers the strong recent results.
Valuation is stretched versus peers, with the valuation measure 1.16 times the peer level. The expectations gap is modestly positive at 0.11, and the valuation score recently rose while company momentum fell sharply, leaving less room for execution to weaken.
Near term, revenue increased from 2025-Q4 to 2026-Q2, and loans grew from 2026-Q1 to 2026-Q3. Third-quarter charge-offs and nonperforming loans make the quality of that loan growth an open question; latest-quarter expenses declined, but year-to-date expenses remained above the prior-year period. A recent earnings miss and a reported run of misses add near-term risk, although the supplied miss-risk estimate is low.
The multi-year view hinges on whether CTBI can keep building core earnings while improving loan quality and controlling expenses. Near term, a guidance cut or falling rates would weigh on the setup, while continued strong results and higher guidance from financial-sector bellwethers would support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the business case rests on sustained earnings progress and disciplined lending, but stretched valuation and recent momentum weakness raise the importance of execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Community Trust Bancorp, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=5.90 USD per share. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $5.90 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $1.64 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=5.90 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 20261.64 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income at or above $35.3 million in Q1 2026 | It maintains stable operating income, with $35.3 million in Q1 2026. | Intact | Operating income falls below $35.3 million in Q1 2026 | Operating income: $38.347M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=35.3 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 202638,347,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.47 → $6.48 · observed estimates
$0.33B → $0.33B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.47 | $326,150,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.50 | $327,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.48 | $326,000,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.48 | $326,000,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.48 | $326,000,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.48 | $326,000,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.48 | $326,000,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.48 | $326,000,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.48 | $326,000,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.48 | $326,000,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.48 | $326,000,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.48 | $326,000,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.48 | $326,000,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.48 | $326,000,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.48 | $326,000,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.48 | $326,000,000 | 3 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.