Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. (CTBI)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$77.76+0.35%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CTBI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 1.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -6.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 220 industry peers
CTBI — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-29
Other Events —Announcing Increase in Cash Dividend provided under Items 7.01 and 8.01 of Form 8-K On July 28, 2026, the Board of Directors of Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.65 per share beginning with the October 1, 2026 payment to shareholders of record on September 15, 2026. This represents an increase of 22.6% in the quarterly cash dividend. In addition to the quarterly cash dividend, the Board approved a one-time cash dividend payment of $0.06 per s…
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend show that management believes in future earnings. A steady or higher dividend helps build trust with investors.
Supportive ifDividend per share remains at $0.65 or increases further in the next announcement.
Worry ifDividend per share decreases or is held below $0.65 in the next announcement.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This may hurt investor confidence in Community Trust Bancorp.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of the last three years, indicating a slowdown.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median, showing continued strength in the sector.
Why it matters: A quick appointment keeps leadership stable and plans on track.
Watch forA new leader was named before the retirement date.
Also watch forNo new leader was named by February 5, 2027.
Why it matters: Maintaining EPS guidance shows confidence in earnings growth. It impacts investor trust.
Supportive ifManagement confirms EPS guidance of $5.90 for 2026 in the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement revises EPS guidance down from $5.90 for 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$67 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $255 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,177 loss on $10,000 · 11.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A new president could change company strategy. It may also affect stability during the change.
Watch forThere is news of a successor for the president position.
Also watch forNo successor is announced by the next earnings date. This shows possible leadership uncertainty.
Why it matters: Earnings per share is a key measure of profitability. A drop signals potential issues.
Worry ifQ3 earnings per share reported below $1.60.
Less concerning ifQ3 earnings per share reported above $1.60.
Why it matters: Loan growth is crucial for revenue. Slower growth may indicate market challenges.
Worry ifLoan portfolio growth reported below 8% year over year.
Less concerning ifLoan portfolio growth reported above 8% year over year.
Why it matters: More nonperforming loans may mean credit quality problems. This can affect future earnings.
Worry ifNonperforming loans are over $29.7 million.
Less concerning ifNonperforming loans are below $29.7 million.
Why it matters: Low charge-offs show strong credit quality and good risk management.
Supportive ifNet loan charge-offs reported below $1 million for Q3.
Worry ifNet loan charge-offs reported above $1 million for Q3.
Why it matters: The dividend shows the company is financially healthy. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend per share remains at $0.53 for the next quarter.
Worry ifDividend per share is cut below $0.53.
Why it matters: Stable operating income shows the company is managing costs well. It supports growth.
Supportive ifOperating income stays around $35 million in Q3.
Worry ifOperating income falls below $34 million in Q3.
Why it matters: High noninterest expenses can hurt profits. Keeping track helps with cost control.
Worry ifNoninterest expenses grew more than 3% in Q3.
Less concerning ifNoninterest expenses grew less than 3% in Q3.
Why it matters: A dividend increase shows strong finances. It also shows commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifLook for a cash dividend above $0.65 per share.
Worry ifThere will be no news about a dividend increase in October 2026.