Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. (CTBI)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$70.71+1.92%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CTBI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 5.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -7.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CTBI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-21
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On October 21, 2026, Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and nine months ended September 30, 2026. A copy of this press release is being furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission pursuant to
Why it matters: Charge-offs rose to 0.50% in Q3 from 0.07% in Q2. A further rise would weaken the case for quality loan growth.
Worry ifQ4 net loan charge-offs exceed 0.50% of average loans.
Less concerning ifQ4 net loan charge-offs fall below 0.50% of average loans.
Why it matters: Noninterest income rose 16.9% from a year ago in Q3. Some gains came from changes in equity security values, so the next result tests how much growth lasts.
Watch forQ4 noninterest income is at least $18.6 million, near or above the Q3 level.
Also watch forQ4 noninterest income falls below the Q3 level of $18.6 million.
Why it matters: The margin fell 17 basis points in Q3 as funding costs rose. A further drop could slow growth in net interest income.
Worry ifQ4 net interest margin falls below the Q3 level of 3.63%.
Less concerning ifQ4 net interest margin holds at or above 3.63%.
Why it matters: Nonperforming loans fell to $22.5 million in Q3, while charge-offs rose sharply. A new rise would add to signs of loan stress.
Worry ifQ4 nonperforming loans exceed the Q3 level of $22.5 million.
Less concerning ifQ4 nonperforming loans stay at or below $22.5 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$69 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $217 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,401 loss on $10,000 · 14.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Q3 expense fell from Q2, but nine-month expense was still 3.5% above last year. Another drop would support the cost-control effort.
Supportive ifQ4 noninterest expense is below the Q3 level of $36.5 million.
Worry ifQ4 noninterest expense is at or above $36.5 million.