CALIBERCOS INC (CWD)
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
$0.51-0.41%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CWD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -88.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -39.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 49.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 35 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CWD — legal / regulatory event — Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standar…
Dated 2026-08-26
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. On August 21, 2026, CaliberCos Inc. (the “Company” or “Caliber”) received a letter from the Listing Qualifications Staff (the “Staff”) of the Nasdaq Stock Market LLC (“Nasdaq”) indicating that the bid price of the Company’s Class A common stock, par value $0.001 per share (the “Common Stock”), had closed below $1.00 per share for 33 consecutive business days and, as a result, the Company is no…
Why it matters: Improving blockchain and tokenization can help Caliber compete better. This progress is key for growth.
Supportive ifThey said they successfully turned at least one real estate project into a token.
Worry ifNo updates or progress on blockchain projects by Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can recover from the recent earnings miss. This is key for investor sentiment.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 earnings report shows revenue decline or another earnings miss.
Why it matters: Meeting this revenue target would indicate that Caliber is on track with its growth plans for 2026.
Supportive ifQ3 total revenue reported at or above $5 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $4 million.
Why it matters: This program aims to make the capital structure simpler. This could help financial stability.
Supportive ifCaliber finishes more rounds of note conversions. This reduces debt a lot.
Worry ifNo further progress on the note conversion program by the end of 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$412 on $10,000 · ±4.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,118 loss on $10,000 · 11.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $9,514 loss on $10,000 · 95.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating revenue goals shows strong execution and high market demand.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue meets or exceeds the lower end of the $18M to $22M guidance.
Worry ifQ2 revenue falls below the guidance range.
Why it matters: These projects are crucial for revenue growth. Delays could hurt financial performance.
Supportive ifCaliber successfully opens the Hyatt Studios in Steamboat Springs by late 2027.
Worry ifHyatt Studios projects face significant delays beyond 2027.
Why it matters: Reaffirming the revenue guidance shows Caliber is on track to meet its money goals.
Supportive ifManagement reaffirms full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $18M to $22M.
Worry ifManagement lowers the 2026 revenue guidance to below $18M.
Why it matters: This program is important for CaliberCos' money plans. Success could make finances stronger.
Supportive ifA public announcement confirms the start of the note conversion program.
Worry ifNo announcement or delays in launching the note conversion program.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating revenue goals is key for investor trust and future growth.
Supportive ifCaliber reports Q3 revenue within the guided range of $18M to $22M.
Worry ifQ3 revenue falls significantly below the lower end of the guidance range.
Why it matters: Advancing these projects is key to Caliber's growth strategy. Successful openings could drive revenue and improve financial health.
Supportive ifCaliber shares big news about Hyatt Studios projects.
Worry ifNo new updates or delays reported on Hyatt Studios projects.