Denali Therapeutics, Inc. (DNLI)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$22.28-2.28%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DNLI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DNLI — M&A activity — Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement
Dated 2026-04-03
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 3, 2026, Denali Therapeutics Inc. (“Denali”) received written notice from Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (“Takeda”) of its decision to terminate the Collaboration Agreement (the “Agreement”), dated January 3, 2018, between the two companies to co-develop and co-commercialize DNL593 (PTV:PGRN). The decision was driven by strategic considerations and is not related to efficacy or safety data. The termination will become effective 6…
Why it matters: Partnerships can greatly affect Denali's growth and projects.
Watch forDenali announces a new partnership that boosts its projects or revenue.
Also watch forDenali loses an important partnership that harms its growth outlook.
Why it matters: The findings will give insights into LRRK2 as a treatment target. This will affect Denali's future research plans.
Watch forPresentation of LUMA study findings shows new insights or potential for LRRK2 as a target.
Also watch forNo new insights or negative views of the LUMA study findings were presented.
Why it matters: This launch is key for Denali's growth and validates their development efforts.
Supportive ifThe company will launch the TV-enabled medicine by the end of 2026.
Worry ifThe launch is delayed or canceled. This affects growth expectations.
Why it matters: Strong sales of AVLAYAH will help Denali's TransportVehicle platform and its finances. This is key for future products.
Supportive ifAVLAYAH sales exceed initial projections in the first six months post-launch.
Worry ifAVLAYAH sales are lower than expected, showing it is not well accepted in the market.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$182 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $548 loss on $10,000 · 5.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,049 loss on $10,000 · 20.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into Denali's financial health and progress on its projects. It can impact investor sentiment.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue is better than expected or losses are smaller.
Also watch forEarnings report shows worse than expected revenue or increased losses.
Why it matters: If health care sector growth speeds up, it may improve Denali's outlook. This affects overall investor sentiment.
Supportive ifHealth care sector revenue growth increases above 10% year over year.
Worry ifHealth care sector revenue growth continues to decelerate below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Results will show if DNL593 can deliver progranulin for treating FTD-GRN. This could affect Denali's future in treating brain diseases.
Supportive ifData from the Phase 1/2 study shows positive results for DNL593 in patients with FTD-GRN.
Worry ifData from the study shows no real improvement in biomarkers or symptoms.
Why it matters: Initial biomarker data will show how well DNL628 works for Alzheimer's. Good results could boost Denali's Alzheimer's pipeline.
Supportive ifInitial clinical biomarker data from DNL628 Phase 1b study shows a big drop in tau levels.
Worry ifInitial clinical biomarker data from DNL628 Phase 1b study shows no big drop in tau levels.
Why it matters: This revenue range shows if the launch momentum for AVLAYAH continues. Strong sales support Denali's growth strategy.
Supportive ifQ3 AVLAYAH net product revenue meets or exceeds $10.0 million.
Worry ifQ3 AVLAYAH net product revenue falls below $10.0 million.
Why it matters: Results will show how well we can treat frontotemporal dementia. Good data could improve Denali's pipeline.
Supportive ifDNL593 Phase 1/2 study results are reported by the end of 2026.
Worry ifResults are delayed past 2026 or show little effectiveness.
Why it matters: The COMPASS study is key to proving AVLAYAH's benefits. Good results could allow for more uses.
Supportive ifGood interim results from the ongoing global Phase 2/3 COMPASS study.
Worry ifBad interim results or delays in the COMPASS study.
Why it matters: Data from this study will inform the future of DNL151 in Parkinson's disease. Positive results could renew interest in the program.
Watch forGood data from the BEACON study shows effectiveness in LRRK2 variant carriers.
Also watch forBad data from the BEACON study shows no effectiveness.