Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Denali Therapeutics, Inc. (DNLI)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$19.72-5.92%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DNLI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage financial obligations including new direct obligations | It is managing financial obligations and adjusting to partnership changes. | Improving | Financial obligations increase materially or liquidity stress worsens in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is speculative growth, with elevated risk and no current earnings base. The multi-year view is on watch: commercial execution is advancing, but results have lagged the industry cohort and key clinical evidence is still ahead.
DNLI trades at a durable premium to peers, with medium confidence in that valuation assessment. The evidence does not specify the market’s exact expectations, but the premium suggests investors already credit some durability to the business despite ongoing losses; there is little sign of near-term pricing fragility.
Near term, AVLAYAH provides an early commercial growth signal: it generated product revenue in Q2, and management projects higher Q3 revenue, alongside expanding payer coverage and commercial infrastructure. The trajectory is mixed because DNL593 results moved from a planned 2026 report to 2027, while the platform pipeline advanced and recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort.
The multi-year thesis hinges on AVLAYAH sustaining commercial growth and on clinical programs producing useful evidence, including the delayed DNL593 results. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would add risk, while stronger results and guidance from sector bellwethers could support the broader healthcare backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, DNLI’s long-term thesis is a high-risk balance between early commercial progress and unresolved clinical and financial proof. The valuation premium leaves the business dependent on delivering durable growth. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It is managing financial obligations and adjusting to partnership changes. |
| Intact |
| Material delays or losses arise from partnership termination in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Deliver first TV-enabled medicine by end of 2026 | Denali aims to deliver its first TV-enabled medicine by the end of 2026. | Improving | Failure to deliver the first TV-enabled medicine by end of 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-2.44 → $-2.32 · observed estimates
$0.11B → $0.15B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-2.44 | $106,366,871 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-2.44 | $106,366,871 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-2.44 | $106,366,871 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-2.53 | $103,653,570 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-2.53 | $103,653,570 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-2.44 | $106,366,871 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-2.53 | $103,653,570 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-2.44 | $106,366,871 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-2.44 | $106,366,871 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-2.53 | $103,653,570 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-2.53 | $103,653,570 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-2.53 | $103,653,570 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-2.53 | $103,653,570 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-2.44 | $106,366,871 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-2.44 | $106,366,871 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-2.52 | $105,595,040 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-2.52 | $105,595,040 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-2.52 | $105,595,040 | 16 / 18 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-2.44 | $106,366,871 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-2.43 | $129,179,630 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-2.43 | $129,179,630 | 17 / 19 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-2.44 | $106,366,871 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-2.44 | $106,366,871 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-2.44 | $106,366,871 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-2.44 | $106,366,871 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-2.44 | $106,366,871 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-2.44 | $106,366,871 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-2.34 | $132,271,920 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-2.34 | $132,271,920 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-2.34 | $132,271,920 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-2.34 | $132,271,920 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-2.34 | $132,271,920 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-2.34 | $132,271,920 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-2.34 | $129,883,030 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-2.34 | $129,883,030 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-2.34 | $129,883,030 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-2.34 | $129,883,030 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-2.34 | $129,883,030 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-2.34 | $129,883,030 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-2.34 | $129,883,030 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-2.34 | $129,883,030 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-2.34 | $129,883,030 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-2.34 | $129,883,030 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-2.34 | $129,883,030 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-2.34 | $129,883,030 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-2.34 | $129,883,030 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-2.34 | $129,883,030 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-2.34 | $129,883,030 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-2.35 | $129,520,766 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-2.35 | $129,520,766 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-2.35 | $129,520,766 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-2.35 | $129,520,766 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-2.35 | $129,520,766 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-2.35 | $129,520,766 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-2.35 | $129,520,766 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-2.35 | $129,520,766 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-2.35 | $129,520,766 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-2.35 | $129,520,766 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-2.35 | $129,520,766 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-2.35 | $129,520,766 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-2.35 | $129,520,766 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-2.35 | $129,520,766 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-2.35 | $129,520,766 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-2.35 | $130,362,872 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-2.35 | $130,362,872 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-2.35 | $130,362,872 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-2.35 | $130,362,872 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-2.35 | $130,362,872 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-2.35 | $130,362,872 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-2.35 | $130,362,872 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-2.35 | $130,362,872 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-2.35 | $130,362,872 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-2.35 | $130,362,872 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-2.35 | $130,362,872 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-2.35 | $130,362,872 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-2.35 | $130,362,872 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-2.35 | $130,362,872 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-2.35 | $130,362,872 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-2.35 | $130,362,872 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-2.35 | $130,362,872 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-2.35 | $130,362,872 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-2.35 | $130,362,872 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-2.35 | $130,362,856 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-2.35 | $130,362,856 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-2.34 | $130,789,488 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-2.34 | $130,789,488 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-2.34 | $130,789,488 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-2.34 | $130,789,488 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-2.34 | $130,789,488 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-2.36 | $130,616,909 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-2.36 | $130,616,909 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-2.36 | $130,616,909 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-2.36 | $130,616,909 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-2.36 | $130,616,909 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-2.36 | $130,616,909 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-2.36 | $130,616,909 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-2.36 | $130,616,909 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-2.36 | $130,616,909 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-2.36 | $130,616,909 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-2.36 | $130,616,909 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-2.36 | $130,616,909 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-2.36 | $130,616,909 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-2.36 | $130,616,909 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-2.32 | $146,245,347 | 15 / 15 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.