DOW
Dow Inc.NYSEMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, DOW has a composite score of 8.3 and a signal label of "mixed." The score reflects a medium confidence level of 71.6 and is influenced by macroeconomic factors, including growth, inflation, labor, and rates. The current analysis is provisional, indicating that the situation may change.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share0.55
- Slope (norm)0.63
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.19 → $1.19 (+515.2% / 30d). 10 raised, 0 cut, 14 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 39% of analysts rate Buy.
7 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 17.1% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
9 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Achieve $2 billion additional earningsgrowthmixed65% progressprovisional
1/29: “We expect these efforts to provide at least $2 billion in additional near-term earnings.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Dow aims for $2 billion in additional earnings. Revenue increased from $9.973 billion in 2025-Q3 to $12.122 billion in 2025-Q4, indicating positive momentum. However, limited specific delivery evidence this quarter.
- 2.Improve operational EBITDA by $500 millioncostmixed65% progressprovisional
1/29: “2026 $500 in-year Op. EBITDA improvement.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Dow targets a $500 million operational EBITDA improvement. Operating income rose from $70 million in 2025-Q3 to $1.74 billion in 2025-Q4, showing progress. However, specific EBITDA improvement evidence is limited this quarter.
- 3.Optimize European operationssupply chainwatchprovisional
7/7: “The shutdown of upstream assets in Europe will right-size regional capacity.”
Why this status
Stated in 2025-Q2. Dow aims to optimize European operations by shutting down higher-cost assets. Revenue in 2025-Q4 was $12.122 billion, up from $10.104 billion in 2025-Q2, but specific European optimization impact is not detailed this quarter.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 53%; 252d 50%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −32%. Bad day move −4%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLB) — 0.07 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 17/100, drawdown 36/100, beta 8/100, earnings vol —.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Achieve $2 billion additional earnings
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Dow aims to achieve $2 billion in additional near-term earnings to improve shareholder returns.
On track →MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Dow aims for $2 billion in additional earnings. Revenue increased from $9.973 billion in 2025-Q3 to $12.122 billion in 2025-Q4, indicating positive momentum. However, limited specific delivery evidence this quarter.
65%CEO/CFO:“We expect these efforts to provide at least $2 billion in additional near-term earnings.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-01-29Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“We expect these efforts to provide at least $2 billion in additional near-term earnings.”
- #2
Improve operational EBITDA by $500 million
CostNew since 2026-05-04Dow targets a $500 million improvement in operational EBITDA for 2026.
On track →MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Dow targets a $500 million operational EBITDA improvement. Operating income rose from $70 million in 2025-Q3 to $1.74 billion in 2025-Q4, showing progress. However, specific EBITDA improvement evidence is limited this quarter.
65%CEO/CFO:“2026 $500 in-year Op. EBITDA improvement.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-01-29Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“2026 $500 in-year Op. EBITDA improvement.”
- #3
Optimize European operations
Supply chainNew since 2026-05-04Dow plans to optimize its European operations by shutting down higher-cost assets.
WatchStated in 2025-Q2. Dow aims to optimize European operations by shutting down higher-cost assets. Revenue in 2025-Q4 was $12.122 billion, up from $10.104 billion in 2025-Q2, but specific European optimization impact is not detailed this quarter.
No scoreCEO/CFO:“The shutdown of upstream assets in Europe will right-size regional capacity.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2025-07-07Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (1)
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“The shutdown of upstream assets in Europe will right-size regional capacity.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
P/E over the last 5 years
0 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DOW Dow Inc. | +8.3 | — | elevated |
LIN Linde plc | +24 | inexpensive | moderate |
NEM Newmont | +17 | inexpensive | elevated |
FCX Freeport-McMoRan | +6.4 | — | elevated |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | +18 | inexpensive | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If materials sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-23)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-23)-8.0 pts
- If materials sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-3.5 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2315d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 23, 2026 , Dow Inc. issued a press release, attached as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference, announcing results for the first quarter of 2026. The information contained in this report, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of Section 18. Furthermore, the…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 51 - 2026-04-1424d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of Chief Executive Officer On April 14, 2026, Dow Inc. (“Dow” or the “Company”) announced that on April 9, 2026 the Board of Directors (the “Board”) appointed Karen S. Carter as Chief Executive Officer of the Company, effective July 1, 2026. Ms. Carter will succeed Jim Fitterling, who will remain an employee of the Company and transitio…
executive changeneutralscore 45 - 2026-01-293mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 29, 2026, Dow Inc. issued a press release, attached as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference, announcing results for the fourth quarter of 2025. The information contained in this report, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of Section 18. Furthermore, th…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 7 - 2026-01-293mo agoItem 2.05
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On January 29, 2026, Dow Inc. ("Dow" or the "Company") announced Transform to Outperform, a comprehensive set of actions designed to improve near-term Operating EBITDA by simplifying the Company’s operating model, reducing its cost structure and delivering faster growth. On January 26, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors approved certain severance and related benefit costs for a workforce reduction of approximately 4,500 roles globally rel…
product or strategy shiftnegativescore 6 - 2026-01-293mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. The Company issued a press release on January 29, 2026, announcing Transform to Outperform. The press release is included below in its entirety. Dow launches Transform to Outperform to raise the competitive industry benchmark for productivity and growth to enable improved returns • Targeting at least $2 billion near-term Op. EBITDA improvement • Actions aim to radically simplify the Company’s operating model, streamline its processes, reset its cost structure and modernize how i…
product or strategy shiftnegativescore 5
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.