DVA
DaVitaNYSEHealth CareMedical Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, DVA has a composite score of 19.3 and a signal label of "mild favorable." The company momentum score increased significantly by 24.0 points, reaching 42.8. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as labor, rates, growth, and inflation. The overall confidence in this assessment is medium, with a moderate risk label.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.04
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Joint read: strong + robust historically delivered 80%+ NI-grew rate over T+1y in IT 2024–26 (small N).
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $3.66 → $3.82 (+4.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 22% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 15.2% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
3 material events in the last 24 months — top 3 listed below.
Stated priorities
2 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Maintain operating income guidancegrowthbehind0% progress
5/5: “Current 2026 guidance: Adjusted operating income $2,150 to $2,250 million.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income guidance for 2026 is $2,150 to $2,250 million. Operating income was $563 million in 2025-Q4, showing limited progress towards the annual target. The trajectory indicates a need for continued focus to meet the guidance.
- 2.Achieve free cash flow guidancecapital allocationmixed57% progressprovisional
2/2: “Free cash flow guidance for 2026 is $1,000 to $1,250 million.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Free cash flow guidance for 2026 is $1,000 to $1,250 million. Cash from operations was $306.9 million in 2025-Q4, indicating a need for significant improvement to meet the annual target. The trajectory requires substantial progress to align with guidance.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 67%; 252d 41%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −31%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLV) — 0.65 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 32/100, drawdown 37/100, beta 65/100, earnings vol —.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- score change · company_momentum_scoreseverity 40
Company momentum rose by 24.0 points (from 18.8 to 42.8).
As of 2026-05-08, the company momentum score for DVA rose by 24.0 points, increasing from 18.8 to 42.8. The overall signal transitioned to "mild_favorable." The forward view indicates an unfavorable scenario if next-quarter guidance is cut, and a favorable scenario if next-quarter guidance is raised. The inputs are provisional.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Maintain operating income guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-05DaVita aims to maintain its operating income guidance for 2026 between $2,150 million and $2,250 million.
BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income guidance for 2026 is $2,150 to $2,250 million. Operating income was $563 million in 2025-Q4, showing limited progress towards the annual target. The trajectory indicates a need for continued focus to meet the guidance.
0%CEO/CFO:“Current 2026 guidance: Adjusted operating income $2,150 to $2,250 million.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-05Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-05Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Current 2026 guidance: Adjusted operating income $2,150 to $2,250 million.”
- 2025-Q3Multiple sources
“Adjusted operating income $2,035 to $2,135 million.”
- 2025-Q2Multiple sources
“Adjusted operating income $2,010 to $2,160 million.”
- #2
Achieve free cash flow guidance
Capital allocationDaVita aims to achieve its free cash flow guidance for 2026 between $1,000 million and $1,250 million.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Free cash flow guidance for 2026 is $1,000 to $1,250 million. Cash from operations was $306.9 million in 2025-Q4, indicating a need for significant improvement to meet the annual target. The trajectory requires substantial progress to align with guidance.
57%CEO/CFO:“Free cash flow guidance for 2026 is $1,000 to $1,250 million.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-02Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-02provisionalShow history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Free cash flow $1,000 to $1,250 million.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DVA DaVita | +19 | fair | moderate |
LLY Lilly (Eli) | +21 | full | moderate |
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | +18 | full | low |
ABBV AbbVie | +12 | fair | low |
UNH UnitedHealth Group | +24 | fair | elevated |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If health_care sector trend rises from +0.06 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05)-8.0 pts
- If labor state reverses from -0.31 (negative) to +0.31 (positive)-6.8 pts
- If health_care sector trend falls from +0.06 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-053d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, DaVita Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information contained in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto) is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange…
earnings preannouncement—score 61 - 2026-02-023mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 2, 2026, DaVita Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information contained in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto) is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “E…
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 7 - 2025-08-208mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On August 20, 2025, the board of directors (the “Board”) of DaVita Inc. (the “Company”) increased the authorization under the Company’s existing share repurchase program by $2,000,000,000 in additional repurchasing authority (the “New Authorization”). The amount of shares of common stock authorized to be repurchased under the New Authorization does not include the amount remaining under the Company’s existing share repurchase program authorized on September 5, 2024 (the “Existin…
capital allocationpositivescore 0
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.