Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Ellington Financial, Inc. (EFC)
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
$11.49-3.04%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.98 → 1.98 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for EFC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain consistent monthly common dividend of $0.13 per share | Ellington Financial pays a steady monthly dividend of $0.13 per share. | Intact | monthly dividend falls below $0.13 per share | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
EFC is a financially sensitive business with a growth effort in Longbridge originations and reverse mortgage securitizations. The thesis is on watch: recent performance is below its industry cohort, company quality declined, and confidence is medium.
EFC screens cheap versus peers, but the supplied expectations gap is negative and the valuation signal is only medium confidence. Pricing appears justified by weak execution quality, without evidence that the full set of fragile-business concerns is reflected.
Near term, Longbridge originations rose from the first to the second quarter of 2026, and management reported two proprietary reverse mortgage securitizations; revenue also increased, while management described credit performance as strong. Execution remains mixed: overall debt-to-equity rose, and recent results remain below the industry cohort; the supplied evidence gives little comparable detail on credit losses.
A guidance cut at the next call would be a meaningful negative, while rate cuts from the current level could weigh on EFC and the broader Financials sector. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum; EFC’s own ability to scale Longbridge and strengthen its balance sheet also matters.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on whether platform growth and credit performance can offset fragile earnings quality and mixed balance-sheet progress. The evidence supports a watchful, medium-confidence view, not a clear break in the thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Net income grew strongly to $95.5 million in Q1 2026. |
| Intact |
| net income falls below $46.7 million quarterly |
Net income: $54.403M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $95.5 million quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 202654,403,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth to sustain or exceed $149.5 million quarterly | A supporting condition in Ellington Financial, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $149.5 million quarterly. | Intact | revenue falls below $140.3 million quarterly | Revenue: $170.837M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $149.5 million quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 2026170,837,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.93 → $1.98 · observed estimates
$0.48B → $0.53B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.93 | $477,005,989 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.93 | $688,819,600 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.93 | $477,005,989 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.93 | $688,819,600 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.93 | $477,005,989 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.93 | $688,819,600 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.93 | $688,819,600 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.93 | $477,005,989 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.93 | $477,005,989 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.93 | $688,819,600 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.93 | $688,819,600 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.93 | $688,819,600 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.93 | $477,005,989 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.93 | $688,819,600 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.93 | $477,005,989 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.93 | $688,819,600 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.94 | $750,381,500 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.93 | $477,005,989 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.93 | $477,005,989 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.95 | $759,381,500 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.93 | $477,005,989 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.93 | $477,005,989 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.93 | $477,005,989 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.93 | $477,005,989 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.93 | $477,005,989 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.93 | $477,005,989 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.93 | $477,005,989 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.98 | $525,875,900 | 5 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.