Ellington Financial, Inc. (EFC)
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
$11.85+4.50%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EFC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -44.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -8.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 35.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
EFC — dividend update
Dated 2026-11-05
Other Events On November 5, 2026, Ellington Financial Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing that its Board of Directors has declared a monthly dividend of $0.13 per share of common stock, payable on December 31, 2026 to common stockholders of record as of November 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is filed herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report on Form 8-K and the information related to the dividend is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: The September estimate is below June's $13.61. Final results will show whether that decline grows or reverses.
Watch forQ3 reported book value per share is at least $13.53.
Also watch forQ3 reported book value per share is below $13.53.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$74 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $177 loss on $10,000 · 1.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,767 loss on $10,000 · 17.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.