Ellington Financial, Inc. (EFC)
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
$13.47+0.90%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EFC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -35.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -7.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
EFC — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-10
Other Events On August 10, 2026, Ellington Financial Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing that its Board of Directors has declared a monthly dividend of $0.13 per share of common stock, payable on September 30, 2026 to common stockholders of record as of August 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is filed herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report on Form 8-K and the information related to the dividend is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Strong performance from Longbridge helps growth and profits.
Supportive ifLongbridge segment net income is over $30 million.
Worry ifLongbridge segment net income is under $30 million.
Why it matters: Consistent dividends show that the company is stable. It also shows that management wants to share profits.
Supportive ifMonthly dividend of $0.13 per share is declared and paid as expected.
Worry ifDividend is cut or not declared for August 2026.
Why it matters: If sector growth slows, it may impact EFC's performance and investor outlook.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth drops below its median.
Why it matters: Earnings below this amount may show weaker performance. This can impact dividends.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted earnings are $75 million or more.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted earnings are under $75 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$60 on $10,000 · ±0.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $154 loss on $10,000 · 1.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,767 loss on $10,000 · 17.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Net income changes show how much money the company makes. They also show how well it runs.
Watch forNet income exceeds $54.4 million in Q3, showing strong performance.
Also watch forNet income drops below $50 million in Q3. This shows possible challenges.
Why it matters: Changes in book value per share show financial stability and growth.
Watch forBook value per share rises above $13.61. This shows strong performance.
Also watch forBook value per share drops below $13.56. This suggests financial issues.
Why it matters: Slower growth may show problems in keeping asset values and performance.
Worry ifBook value per share growth reported at $0.45 or higher.
Less concerning ifBook value per share growth reported below $0.45.
Why it matters: Higher revenue growth means strong market demand. It shows the company is working well. This could bring in more investors.
Supportive ifRevenue exceeds $149.5 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifRevenue falls below $149.5 million.
Why it matters: Steady net income growth shows the company is making more money. This affects future investment choices.
Supportive ifNet income exceeds $95 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifNet income drops below $95 million.
Why it matters: Regular dividends show the company is stable. This can bring in more investors.
Supportive ifMonthly dividend of $0.13 per share is declared and paid on August 31, 2026.
Worry ifMonthly dividend is reduced below $0.13 per share or not declared for August 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in book value may show weaker asset performance or more liabilities.
Worry ifBook value per share reported below $13.61 for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifBook value per share remains above $13.61 for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in loan originations may show less demand in the reverse mortgage market.
Worry ifLongbridge loan originations were below $589.7 million for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifLoan originations were above $589.7 million for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in net income may show problems in making money.
Worry ifNet income reported below $54.4 million for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet income remains above $54.4 million for Q3 2026.