ETN
Eaton CorporationNYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, ETN has a composite score of 23.0 and a signal label of "mild favorable." The valuation label has changed from "full" to "fair," indicating a shift in perception of its value. Key drivers include macroeconomic factors such as growth, labor, rates, and inflation, with a high confidence level of 85.2%.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.03
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $3.15 → $3.12 (-1.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 8 cut, 14 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 7 maintained. 77% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 17.4% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
11 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase EPS by 6% in 2026growthmixed63% progress
5/5: “For full year 2026, earnings per share expected to be between $10.88 and $11.33, up 6% at the midpoint over 2025.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EPS guidance for 2026 is between $10.88 and $11.33, representing a 6% increase at the midpoint over 2025's $10.51. The trajectory is consistent with management's stated growth target.
- 2.Achieve segment margins of 24.6-25.0% in 2026growthbehind0% progressprovisional
2/3: “For the full year 2026, the company anticipates: Segment margins of 24.6-25.0%.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management has set a target for segment margins between 24.6% and 25.0% for 2026. No specific margin data for 2026 is available yet to assess progress.
- 3.Maintain quarterly EPS growthgrowthbehind0% progress
5/5: “For the second quarter of 2026, the company anticipates: Earnings per share between $2.29 and $2.39.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EPS guidance for Q2 2026 is between $2.29 and $2.39, consistent with Q1 2026 guidance of $2.29 to $2.49. The trajectory shows a focus on maintaining quarterly EPS growth.
Guidance track record
Last 8 quarters of EPS guidance with actuals.
Per-quarter detail
| Period | Guidance | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-30 | $2.19 – $2.29 | $2.73 | beat |
| 2024-09-30 | $2.42 – $2.52 | $2.53 | beat |
| 2024-12-31 | $2.42 – $2.48 | $2.83 | beat |
| 2025-03-31 | $2.30 – $2.40 | $2.72 | beat |
| 2025-06-30 | $2.35 – $2.45 | $2.95 | beat |
| 2025-09-30 | $2.58 – $2.64 | $3.07 | beat |
| 2025-12-31 | $2.75 – $2.95 | $3.33 | beat |
| 2026-03-31 | $2.29 – $2.49 | $2.81 | beat |
Beat / inside / miss is computed from the guided range when issued; for point-estimate quarters a ±5% tolerance band around the mid is used. surprise_pct_vs_mid is unstable when guided EPS is near zero, so it is not surfaced as a headline.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 40%; 252d 31%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −19%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLI) — 1.35 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 48/100, drawdown 62/100, beta 65/100, earnings vol —.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- label change · valuation_labelseverity 20
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'fair'.
As of 2026-05-08, the valuation label for ETN changed from 'full' to 'fair'. This is a label change with a severity score of 20.0. The forward view indicates an unfavorable direction with a composite delta estimate of -8.0 if next-quarter guidance is cut, and a favorable direction with a composite delta estimate of 5.0 if the industrials sector trend rises to 'improving'.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 8 guided quarters · 16.3% avg surprise
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase EPS by 6% in 2026
GrowthNew since 2026-05-05Eaton aims to increase earnings per share by 6% at the midpoint for the full year 2026 compared to 2025.
MixedStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EPS guidance for 2026 is between $10.88 and $11.33, representing a 6% increase at the midpoint over 2025's $10.51. The trajectory is consistent with management's stated growth target.
63%CEO/CFO:“For full year 2026, earnings per share expected to be between $10.88 and $11.33, up 6% at the midpoint over 2025.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-05Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-05Show history (2)
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“For full year 2026, earnings per share expected to be between $10.88 and $11.33, up 6% at the midpoint over 2025.”
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“For the full year 2026, earnings per share expected to be between $11.57 and $12.07.”
- #2
Achieve segment margins of 24.6-25.0% in 2026
GrowthEaton targets segment margins between 24.6% and 25.0% for the full year 2026.
BehindNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Management has set a target for segment margins between 24.6% and 25.0% for 2026. No specific margin data for 2026 is available yet to assess progress.
0%CEO/CFO:“For the full year 2026, the company anticipates: Segment margins of 24.6-25.0%.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-02-03Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-02-03provisionalShow history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“For the full year 2026, the company anticipates: Segment margins of 24.6-25.0%.”
- #3
Maintain quarterly EPS growth
GrowthNew since 2026-05-05Eaton aims to maintain growth in quarterly earnings per share throughout 2026.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EPS guidance for Q2 2026 is between $2.29 and $2.39, consistent with Q1 2026 guidance of $2.29 to $2.49. The trajectory shows a focus on maintaining quarterly EPS growth.
0%CEO/CFO:“For the second quarter of 2026, the company anticipates: Earnings per share between $2.29 and $2.39.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-05Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-05Show history (2)
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“For the second quarter of 2026, the company anticipates: Earnings per share between $2.29 and $2.39.”
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“For the first quarter of 2026, the company anticipates: Earnings per share between $2.29 and $2.49.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ETN Eaton Corporation | +23 | fair | moderate |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | +13 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | +11 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | +10 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | +20 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If industrials sector trend rises from +0.05 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05)-8.0 pts
- If industrials sector trend falls from +0.05 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-053d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Eaton Corporation plc issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished with this Report as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 61 - 2026-03-022mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Chief Financial Officer Appointment On March 2, 2026, Eaton Corporation plc (the “Company”) announced that David B. Foster has been appointed on February 26, 2026 as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Eaton Corporation, effective March 2, 2026 (the “Effective Date”). Mr. Foster will serve as the Company’s principal financial of…
executive changeneutralscore 17 - 2026-03-101mo agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. On March 6, 2026, Eaton Corp closed its sale of 3.850% notes due 2028 in the principal amount of $1,500.0 million (the “ 2028 U.S. Notes ”); 3.950% notes due 2029 in the principal amount of $1,500.0 million (the “ 2029 U.S. Notes ”); 4.200% notes due 2031 in the principal amount of $1,500.0 million (the “ 2031 U.S. Notes ”); 4.500% notes due 2033 in the principal amount of $1,000.0 million (the “ 20…
capital allocationnegativescore 13 - 2026-03-101mo agoItem 1.02
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 6, 2026, Eaton Corporation (“ Eaton Corp ”), a subsidiary of Eaton Corporation plc (the “ Company ”), terminated the $8,000,000,000 term credit agreement (the “ Term Credit Agreement ”) entered into on February 6, 2026 with the Company, Eaton Capital Unlimited Company (“ Eaton Capital ”), a subsidiary of the Company, and certain other subsidiaries of the Company that become eligible borrowers, certain subsidiaries of the Company as guar…
mna activitynegativescore 13 - 2026-03-022mo agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 25, 2026, the Compensation and Organization Committee (the “Committee”) of the Board of Directors of Eaton Corporation plc (the “Company”) established corporate performance criteria that will be used to determine the amount of 2026 executive incentive compensation awards that will be paid, if earned, after the end of the annual performa…
executive changeneutralscore 12
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.