FANG
Diamondback EnergyNASDAQEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, FANG has a composite score of 1.3, with a signal label of "mixed" and a medium confidence level of 74.2. The score is influenced by various factors, including a favorable macro outlook with a score of 4.0, but lower management and quality scores of 36.3 and 36.7, respectively. The analysis is provisional and reflects potential scenarios such as a guidance cut or improvements in the energy sector trend.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.05
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $4.12 → $5.76 (+39.9% / 30d). 13 raised, 5 cut, 21 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 84% of analysts rate Buy.
8 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 22.5% above current price.
2 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
6 material events in the last 24 months — top 5 listed below.
Stated priorities
2 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Increase production guidancegrowthbehind14% progress
5/4: “2026 Net production - MBOE/d 972+ (from 926 - 962).”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Production guidance for 2026 was increased to 972+ MBOE/d from the previous range of 926 - 962 MBOE/d. This indicates a strategic focus on growth, with the company aiming to enhance its production capabilities.
- 2.Raise capital expenditures guidancecapital allocationmixed44% progress
5/4: “Raising full year cash capital expenditures to ~$3.90 billion (from ~$3.75 billion).”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company raised its full year cash capital expenditures guidance to ~$3.90 billion from ~$3.75 billion, reflecting a strategic decision to allocate more resources towards capital projects. This suggests a commitment to investing in growth and operational capacity.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 36%; 252d 31%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −13%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLE) — 0.10 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 49/100, drawdown 75/100, beta 10/100, earnings vol —.
Calm + bullish setup — clean pre-earnings positioning pattern.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Increase production guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Raise production guidance for 2026 to 972+ MBOE/d from 926 - 962 MBOE/d.
BehindNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Production guidance for 2026 was increased to 972+ MBOE/d from the previous range of 926 - 962 MBOE/d. This indicates a strategic focus on growth, with the company aiming to enhance its production capabilities.
14%CEO/CFO:“2026 Net production - MBOE/d 972+ (from 926 - 962).”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-04Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“2026 Net production - MBOE/d 972+ (from 926 - 962).”
- #2
Raise capital expenditures guidance
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Increase full year cash capital expenditures to ~$3.90 billion from ~$3.75 billion.
MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. The company raised its full year cash capital expenditures guidance to ~$3.90 billion from ~$3.75 billion, reflecting a strategic decision to allocate more resources towards capital projects. This suggests a commitment to investing in growth and operational capacity.
44%CEO/CFO:“Raising full year cash capital expenditures to ~$3.90 billion (from ~$3.75 billion).”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-04Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Raising full year cash capital expenditures to ~$3.90 billion (from ~$3.75 billion).”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
38 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FANG Diamondback Energy | +1.3 | full | moderate |
XOM ExxonMobil | +5.8 | expensive | moderate |
CVX Chevron Corporation | +3.0 | expensive | moderate |
COP ConocoPhillips | +8.0 | expensive | moderate |
WMB Williams Companies | +4.1 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If inflation state reverses from -0.34 (negative) to +0.34 (positive)+5.4 pts
- If energy sector trend rises from -0.03 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-05-04)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-05-04)-8.0 pts
- If energy sector trend falls from -0.03 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-044d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 4, 2026, Diamondback Energy, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial and operating results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, including the first quarter 2026 base cash dividend and an increase in the annual base dividend and production guidance (the “earnings release”). A copy of the earnings release is furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 66 - 2026-04-1325d agoItem 2.02
certain information for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 regarding its realized prices, derivative activity and weighted average basic and diluted shares outstanding. Realized Prices First quarter 2026 average unhedged realized prices were $73.47 per barrel of oil, $0.18 per Mcf of natural gas and $16.68 per barrel of natural gas liquids (“NGLs”). First quarter 2026 average realized hedged prices were $72.53 per barrel of oil, $1.90 per Mcf of natural gas and $16.68 per barrel of NGLs. Averag…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 41 - 2026-04-1325d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On April 13, 2026, Diamondback Energy, Inc. (“Diamondback”) announced the final tender results of its previously announced tender offers (the “Offers”) to purchase for cash any and all of Diamondback’s outstanding 4.400% Senior Notes due 2051 (the “2051 Notes”) and 4.250% Senior Notes due 2052 (together with the 2051 Notes, the “Notes”) from holders of each series of the Notes. The Offers expired at 5:00 p.m., New York City time, on April 10, 2026. The Company issued (i) a press…
capital allocationneutralscore 29 - 2026-04-061mo agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On April 6, 2026, Diamondback Energy, Inc. (“Diamondback”) issued a press release announcing that it has commenced tender offers to purchase for cash any and all of Diamondback’s outstanding 4.400% Senior Notes due 2051 (the “2051 Notes”) and 4.250% Senior Notes due 2052 (together with the 2051 Notes, the “Notes”) from holders of each series of the Notes. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated by reference herein.
capital allocationneutralscore 25 - 2026-03-121mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 10, 2026, Diamondback Energy, Inc. (the “ Company ”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “ Underwriting Agreement ”) with SGF FANG Holdings, LP (the “ Selling Stockholder ”) and Evercore Group L.L.C., Citigroup Global Markets Inc. and J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, as representatives of the several underwriters named therein (the “ Underwriters ”), pursuant to which, among other things, the Selling Stockholder agreed to sell to the Und…
capital allocationneutralscore 18
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.