4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc. (FDMT)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$14.97+1.84%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FDMT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 500.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 79.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 421.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FDMT — litigation filed
Dated 2026-07-20
Other Events. On July 18, 2026, 4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) reported positive 2-year data from the PRISM Phase 2b clinical trial evaluating 4D-150 in a broad wet age-related macular degeneration (“wet AMD”) population. 2-Year Data from PRISM Phase 2b Clinical Trial (Data Cutoff May 18, 2026): Trial and Patient Cohort Overview • The Phase 2b trial enrolled 45 patients at two dose levels of a single intravitreal dose of 4D-150 (3E10 and 1E10 vg/eye); 3E10 vg/eye was chosen a…
Why it matters: Finishing enrollment helps us learn more about how well 4D-150 works.
Supportive ifEnrollment for the 4FRONT-2 trial is completed as expected in H2 2026.
Worry ifEnrollment for the 4FRONT-2 trial is delayed beyond H2 2026.
Why it matters: The Investor Day will provide insights into the commercial potential of 4D-150. It may also reveal strategic plans that could impact investor sentiment.
Watch forThe company shares strong market insights and gets good feedback from important experts.
Also watch forThe company gives unclear updates. It also gets bad feedback from important experts.
Why it matters: Starting this trial shows progress in treating diabetic macular edema, which can boost growth.
Supportive ifGlobal Phase 3 trial for DME starts as planned in Q3 2026.
Worry ifGlobal Phase 3 trial for DME is delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: Good data will show 4D-150 is safe and effective. This will help investor trust.
Supportive ifData from 2 years shows less treatment burden and safety for 4D-150.
Worry ifData from 2 years shows no big benefits or new safety issues.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$277 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $738 loss on $10,000 · 7.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,140 loss on $10,000 · 41.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Topline data will show how well 4D-150 works for wet AMD. This could impact future trials and investor confidence.
Supportive ifData from 4FRONT-1 shows better results for patients than current treatments.
Worry ifTopline data from 4FRONT-1 shows no improvement or negative results.
Why it matters: This event will give insights on 4D-150's market potential and strategy.
Watch forManagement shares strong plans and data for 4D-150.
Also watch forManagement does not give strong updates or does not address concerns well.
Why it matters: Starting this trial is key for expanding the use of 4D-150. It shows commitment to developing treatments for diabetic macular edema.
Supportive if4D-150 DME Phase 3 trial starts on schedule as planned.
Worry ifThe trial is delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: Sector growth is easing. If FDMT's revenue growth drops, it may signal deeper issues.
Worry ifFDMT reports revenue growth below the sector median.
Less concerning ifFDMT maintains or exceeds sector median revenue growth.
Why it matters: This data will inform the progress of 4D-150 for diabetic macular edema.
Supportive if2-year data from the SPECTRA trial is expected in H2 2026.
Worry ifData shows no changes in how we treat diabetic macular edema.
Why it matters: This agreement is crucial for funding operations through 2028. It will show how well the company can manage its finances.
Supportive ifThere is news about a successful withdrawal from the credit facility. This money will help fund operations.
Worry ifThere are no updates on the credit facility. This may mean cash flow problems.
Why it matters: Management aims to improve financial performance. Signs of growth will be key to investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue shows a year-over-year increase of at least 10% from Q2.
Worry ifQ3 revenue does not show improvement or declines from Q2 results.
Why it matters: Good data will show 4D-150 is safe and effective. This may attract more investors.
Supportive ifPositive 2-year data from the PRISM trial was shown at a science conference.
Worry ifNegative or unclear data from the PRISM trial was presented.