4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc. (FDMT)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$11.25-8.39%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FDMT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 536.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 85.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 451.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers
FDMT — litigation filed
Dated 2026-09-28
Other Events. On September 28, 2026, 4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) reported that the first patients have been enrolled across multiple sites in the 4SIGHT Phase 3 clinical trial evaluating 4D-150 for the treatment of diabetic macular edema (“DME”). The Company also reported 2-year data from the SPECTRA clinical trial. 4SIGHT: Phase 3 Trial Design and Regulatory Pathway 4SIGHT is a global Phase 3 multicenter, randomized, double-masked, aflibercept 2 mg (“Q8W”) comparator-cont…
Why it matters: AEROW tests 4D-710 for cystic fibrosis. A clear update can show whether this program is advancing beyond the eye-drug trials.
Watch forThe Q4 update reports new trial data or a clear next step, with no new safety concern.
Also watch forThe update reports a serious safety concern, a trial pause, or no update by year-end.
Why it matters: The trials use cash, and the company reported a larger quarterly loss than a year ago. A shorter runway could raise funding pressure.
Worry ifCash falls below the amount needed to fund operations into the second half of 2028. Or management cuts its runway estimate.
Less concerning ifManagement keeps its runway estimate into the second half of 2028. Cash and planned payments still cover the current plan.
Why it matters: The data can show how long 4D-150 may control DME and limit added eye shots. Weak results could hurt the case for the trial.
Watch forThe full data show lasting control of vision and eye swelling, with fewer added shots and no new safety issue.
Also watch forThe data show loss of vision control, more added shots, or a new safety problem.
Why it matters: This Phase 3 readout is a key test of 4D-150 in wet AMD. A clear win or miss could change the outlook for the lead program.
Watch forThe Q2 2027 results meet the trial's main goal and show vision control with fewer added shots.
Also watch forThe trial misses its main goal, shows weaker vision control, or reports a serious safety issue.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$282 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $782 loss on $10,000 · 7.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,834 loss on $10,000 · 38.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: 4SIGHT tests 4D-150 in diabetic eye disease. Early trial progress can show whether the plan is moving on time.
Supportive ifThe November 9 update says enrollment is active at several sites. It reports no pause or delay.
Worry ifThe company reports a pause, enrollment delay, or major change to the 4SIGHT trial plan.