Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc. (FDMT)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$11.25-8.39%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FDMT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Strong cash and liquidity to fund operations | It has a strong cash position of about $514 million to fund development. | Intact | cash falls below $300 million | Cash and cash equivalents: $70.372M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Maintain cash above $400 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Date unavailable70,372,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
FDMT is a speculative clinical-stage biotechnology company, with its long-term thesis tied to developing treatments rather than established profits. The thesis is in watch mode: trial milestones are progressing, but earnings quality is weak, management execution has been described as volatile, and overall risk is elevated.
FDMT is expensive versus peers, with valuation supported in part by potential future clinical opportunity, or optionality. The valuation model has low confidence, and the evidence says the expensive valuation is not accompanied by a broader stack of fragility factors. The snapshot does not specify which clinical outcomes or expectations are already reflected in valuation.
Near term, results may remain hard to assess because the company is loss-making and recent performance is neutral, with an earnings beat reported in August. Management is on track with 4D-150 trial milestones and reported positive two-year PRISM data with no new safety issues; topline Phase 3 data are expected in 2027. Cash and marketable securities declined between the first and second quarters of 2026, though management says they support operations into the second half of 2028; litigation filings and the risk of a guidance cut remain concerns.
The multi-year thesis depends on Phase 3 progress in wet AMD and DME, and whether future clinical data support the treatment’s potential and safety profile. A guidance cut would be a negative near-term signal, while worsening employment data could raise recession concerns across cyclical names. Continued strong results and guidance from large Healthcare companies could support sector momentum, but would not establish FDMT’s clinical outcomes.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company beat earnings twice recently, showing improving financial performance. |
| Intact |
| EPS worsens or losses deepen beyond -$4 per share |
Diluted EPS: $-1.04 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: earnings losses narrowing, EPS trending less negative. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 2026-1.04 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth to sustain recovery | A primary condition in 4D Molecular Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $85 million annual revenue. | Under Pressure | annual revenue falls below $50 million | Revenue: $3.781M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $85 million annual revenue. The stored target says 2025-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 13, 20263,781,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-4.08 → $-4.09 · observed estimates
$0.02B → $0.02B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-4.08 | $17,352,381 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-4.08 | $17,352,381 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-4.08 | $17,352,381 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-3.77 | $17,508,670 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-4.08 | $17,352,381 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-4.08 | $17,352,381 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-3.77 | $17,508,670 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-3.77 | $17,508,670 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-4.08 | $17,352,381 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-3.83 | $17,616,860 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-3.83 | $17,616,860 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-4.11 | $17,466,583 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-3.83 | $17,616,860 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-3.83 | $17,616,860 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-4.11 | $17,466,583 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-3.83 | $17,616,860 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-3.83 | $17,616,860 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-4.11 | $17,466,583 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-3.83 | $17,616,860 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-4.11 | $17,466,583 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-4.11 | $17,466,583 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-4.11 | $17,466,583 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-4.11 | $17,466,583 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-4.11 | $17,466,583 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-4.11 | $17,466,583 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-4.11 | $17,466,583 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-4.11 | $17,466,583 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-4.08 | $18,340,741 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-4.08 | $18,340,741 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-4.08 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-4.09 | $18,340,741 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-4.09 | $18,336,963 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-4.09 | $18,336,963 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-4.09 | $18,336,963 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-4.09 | $18,336,963 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-4.09 | $18,336,963 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-4.09 | $18,336,963 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-4.09 | $18,336,963 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-4.09 | $18,336,963 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-4.09 | $18,336,963 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-4.09 | $18,336,963 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-4.09 | $18,336,963 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-4.09 | $18,336,963 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-4.09 | $18,336,963 | 7 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.
Over the next one to three years, FDMT remains a high-risk clinical-development story with meaningful trial milestones, a stated cash runway into the second half of 2028, and an expensive valuation versus peers. The long-term thesis hinges chiefly on clinical evidence and steady execution. Not investment advice.