Fold Holdings Inc (FLD)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.55-2.64%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FLD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -53.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 51.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 104.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 15 industry peers
FLD — capital allocation
Dated 2026-09-08
Any shares of Common Stock issued to Roth Principal Investments under the Purchase Agreement prior to the effectiveness of the Registration Statement will be issued in reliance on the exemption from the registration requirements of the Securities Act provided by Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act and Rule 506(b) of Regulation D promulgated thereunder, based on, among other things, the representations and warranties of Roth Principal Investments contained in the Purchase Agreement, includin…
Why it matters: New account tools could bring in customers beyond bitcoin users and add income from customer balances.
Supportive ifFold names a new feature, such as direct deposit or instant withdrawals. Fold confirms customers can use it.
Worry ifFold reports no new feature for customers by year-end 2026. Or Fold says the Lead Bank transition is delayed.
Why it matters: The card base more than doubled in Q2. More growth would support its role as a way to bring in customers.
Supportive ifAt the November 10 earnings report, Fold says cardholders rose above 2,000 from the August 11 count.
Worry ifFold reports cardholders at or below 2,000, or says wider card rollout has stalled.
Why it matters: Revenue fell year over year in Q2, while Fold works to grow its card and account products. A rise would show stronger sales.
Supportive ifThe November 10 earnings report shows Q3 revenue above Q2's $6.1 million.
Worry ifThe November 10 earnings report shows Q3 revenue at or below $6.1 million.
Why it matters: Fold is using new sales channels to bring in customers. Revenue fell from $8.2 million in Q2 2025 to $6.1 million in Q2 2026.
Watch forQuarterly revenue rises above $6.1 million. Fold reports more sales through TikTok Shop or Kroger.
Also watch forQuarterly revenue stays at or below $6.1 million, or Fold reports lost access to either sales channel.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$288 on $10,000 · ±2.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,078 loss on $10,000 · 10.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,855 loss on $10,000 · 88.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.