Fold Holdings Inc (FLD)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$0.54+9.87%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FLD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -61.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 43.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 104.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 27 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FLD — M&A activity — TERMINATION OF A MATERIAL DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT
Dated 2026-09-02
TERMINATION OF A MATERIAL DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT. On August 27, 2026, Fold Holdings, Inc. (the "Company") delivered written notice to the investor (the "Investor") party to the Equity Purchase Facility Agreement, dated as of June 16, 2025 (the "Facility"), by and between the Company and the Investor, notifying the Investor of the Company's election to terminate the Facility. In accordance with the termination provisions of the Facility, the termination will become effective on September 3, 2026…
Why it matters: Strong sales growth shows good restructuring and demand for the product.
Supportive ifFold reports a year-over-year increase in Bitcoin Gift Card sales.
Worry ifSales of the Bitcoin Gift Card decline or remain flat despite restructuring efforts.
Why it matters: A successful change shows that Fold is growing its financial services.
Supportive ifFold moves customer accounts to Lead Bank with new features.
Worry ifDelays or bad feedback show customers are unhappy with the new banking services.
Why it matters: Expansion of the credit card will show if Fold can grow despite market challenges. This is key for future revenue.
Supportive ifFold has over 1,000 Bitcoin Credit Cards in use. They plan to increase distribution.
Worry ifThere are no new updates on credit card distribution. Card circulation is stagnant.
Why it matters: Expanding distribution is key for growth. Slow progress may hurt revenue.
Supportive ifManagement announces a new partnership for the product. This will help with distribution.
Worry ifNo new distribution channels are announced in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$497 on $10,000 · ±5.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,142 loss on $10,000 · 11.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $9,161 loss on $10,000 · 91.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More transactions mean more interest from consumers. This shows the market is getting better.
Supportive ifTransaction volumes in Q2 show an increase compared to Q1 2026's $172 million.
Worry ifTransaction volumes are still falling or staying flat compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: If the changes lead to more people using the Bitcoin Gift Card, it can boost sales.
Supportive ifManagement sees many new users using the Bitcoin Gift Card after changing fees.
Worry ifNo increase in user engagement or transaction volume from the Bitcoin Gift Card.
Why it matters: If revenue drops more than 20%, it shows ongoing struggles in the business. This could signal deeper issues in customer engagement and market demand.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $4.48 million, which is a 20% decline from Q2 2025.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: The limited launch of the credit card is key for growth. Success could signal improved revenue potential.
Supportive ifManagement says the credit card launch went well. Customers gave positive feedback.
Worry ifManagement delays the credit card launch. They report negative feedback.
Why it matters: More cardholders show success in gaining customers and acceptance in the market.
Supportive ifFold reports over 5,000 active Fold Credit Card users.
Worry ifCardholder numbers are below 5,000. This is true even with marketing efforts.
Why it matters: New banking features can help customers. They can also boost user engagement.
Supportive ifFold successfully launches at least three new banking features by the end of 2026.
Worry ifFold fails to launch any new features by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: A good resolution would help restore investor trust and keep stock prices steady.
Supportive ifFold's stock price recovers to meet Nasdaq's minimum bid requirement of $1.00.
Worry ifFold fails to meet the minimum bid requirement and faces delisting.
Why it matters: The sector is easing. If Fold Holdings' revenue growth drops below its median, it may signal deeper issues.
Worry ifFold Holdings reports revenue growth below the sector median of 15%.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the sector median.
Why it matters: The limited launch of the credit card is a key growth area. Updates could signal future revenue potential.
Supportive ifManagement shares plans for a wider rollout or good feedback from early users.
Worry ifNo updates or further delays in the credit card launch.
Why it matters: Getting above $1.00 is key for keeping the Nasdaq listing and investor trust.
Supportive ifFold's stock closes above $1.00 for 10 consecutive trading days.
Worry ifStock stays under $1.00 for too long. This risks delisting.