Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Fold Holdings Inc (FLD)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.48-10.08%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FLD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS loss narrows toward break-even | A supporting condition in Fold Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss narrows to >= -$0.10 per share. | Broken | EPS loss worsens beyond -$0.55 in FY26 or fails to improve in FY27 | Diluted EPS: $-0.19 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS loss narrows to >= -$0.10 per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 11, 2026-0.19 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business, not a proven compounder: it is loss-making, has weak recent performance, and carries high risk. The multi-year view is still in a watch state, with medium confidence and some operational progress but no clear evidence yet of a durable earnings engine.
FLD is described as cheap versus peers, but the valuation model has low confidence and the expectations gap is negative, so the apparent discount does not by itself establish a favorable setup. Priced-in fragility is low, though the evidence does not explain the market’s expectations in detail.
Near-term earnings risk is elevated, with a stated 60% miss probability based on the company’s smaller size and recent misses; a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative. Over the multi-year view, cardholder growth and stronger liquidity are progress, but gift-card revenue has declined and overall financial performance remains weak.
The thesis depends on whether the Bitcoin Credit Card can keep gaining users and whether gift-card distribution changes improve its economics. Near term, guidance and earnings execution matter; sector momentum could help if financial bellwethers keep reporting strong results, while falling rates are identified as a sector headwind.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, FLD’s case rests on turning early product and balance-sheet progress into steadier financial performance, while managing high execution and earnings risk. The long-term thesis remains unproven. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain manageable financial obligations and liquidity | The company aims to expand new product distribution and manage financial obligations. | Recovered | Debt rises above $20 million or cash falls below $25 million | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows at least 64% to ~$34 million in FY26 | A primary condition in Fold Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=64% YoY revenue growth to ~$34 million. | Under Pressure | YoY revenue growth falls below ~64% in FY26 | Revenue: $6.09M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=64% YoY revenue growth to ~$34 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 11, 20266,089,909 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.48 → $-0.41 · observed estimates
$0.06B → $0.05B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.48 | $63,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.48 | $63,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.48 | $63,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.48 | $63,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.48 | $63,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.48 | $63,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.48 | $63,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.48 | $63,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.48 | $63,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.68 | $63,300,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.68 | $63,300,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.48 | $63,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.48 | $63,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.68 | $63,300,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.48 | $63,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.68 | $63,300,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.68 | $63,300,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.68 | $63,300,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.68 | $63,300,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.48 | $63,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.68 | $63,300,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.48 | $63,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.48 | $63,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.48 | $63,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.48 | $63,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.48 | $63,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.48 | $63,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.39 | $45,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.39 | $45,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.39 | $45,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.39 | $45,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.39 | $45,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.39 | $45,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.39 | $45,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.39 | $45,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.39 | $45,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.39 | $45,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.39 | $45,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.39 | $45,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.39 | $45,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.39 | $45,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.39 | $45,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.39 | $45,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.39 | $45,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.39 | $45,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.39 | $45,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.39 | $45,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.39 | $45,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.39 | $45,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.39 | $45,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.39 | $45,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.39 | $45,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.39 | $45,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.39 | $45,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.39 | $45,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.39 | $45,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.39 | $45,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.39 | $45,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.39 | $45,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.39 | $45,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.39 | $45,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.39 | $45,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.39 | $45,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.39 | $45,450,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.41 | $45,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.