Flywire Corp. (FLYW)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$18.55-0.80%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FLYW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -10.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 17.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 28.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 22 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FLYW — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 4, 2026, Flywire Corporation (“Flywire” or the “Company”) issued a press release (the “Press Release”) and is holding a conference call regarding its preliminary and unaudited financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. The Press Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. Various statements to be made during the conference call are “forward-looking statemen…
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal a slowdown for Flywire. It would impact investor confidence.
Worry ifSector revenue growth has been below average for two months in a row.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median for two consecutive months.
Why it matters: This growth range is crucial for Flywire to stay on track with its annual targets. A miss could signal weakening demand.
Worry ifQ3 FX-Neutral Revenue Less Ancillary Services growth is 22% or more.
Less concerning ifIn Q3, revenue growth from FX-Neutral sources, not including extra services, is below 16%.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how Flywire is doing financially. They will also show its growth path.
Watch forEarnings results show revenue growth above 15% and EBITDA margin growth.
Also watch forEarnings results show revenue growth below 15% and no margin improvement.
Why it matters: Completing the share repurchase shows confidence in Flywire's value and can support stock price.
Supportive ifCompletion of the $50 million share repurchase program by Q4.
Worry ifAnnouncement of a pause or reduction in the share repurchase program.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$194 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $401 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,816 loss on $10,000 · 28.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This margin growth is crucial for Flywire's profitability. A miss could indicate cost issues.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin growth was below 100 bps for Q3.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA margin growth was above 300 bps for Q3.
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback program show management's confidence in the stock.
Supportive ifThere is an announcement of more share repurchases beyond the $50 million target.
Worry ifNo updates or a pause in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Total payment volume growth reflects Flywire's market demand. A slowdown could raise concerns.
Worry ifTotal payment volume growth reported below 30% YoY in Q3.
Less concerning ifTotal payment volume growth reported above 38% YoY in Q3.