Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Flywire Corp. (FLYW)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$21.26-2.52%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.70 → 0.70 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FLYW yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Expand adjusted EBITDA margin by 1.75 to 3.75 percentage points YoY | Profit margins are set to improve by 1.75 to 3.75 percentage points. | Broken | EBITDA margin growth falls below 1.75 percentage points in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
FLYW is a growth business, with the thesis relying on continued revenue expansion and better margins. The thesis is intact, but execution risk is elevated and earnings quality is fragile.
The valuation assessment is expensive, and valuation rose recently. The model also shows FLYW as cheap versus peers, with an expectations gap of -0.23; the evidence does not fully explain how those measures fit together, so the relative valuation picture is mixed.
Near term, revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth have been strong, and management raised its 2026 growth and margin guidance. The company has also nearly completed its stated share repurchase target. Recent performance includes an earnings miss, so maintaining guidance and execution remains important.
The main company-specific risk is a guidance cut after the recent raise, which could damage confidence in management’s outlook. The broader setup could benefit if interest rates fall or technology-sector peers stabilize, but those factors are uncertain.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on sustaining growth and margin gains while rebuilding confidence after the earnings miss. The business setup is promising, but valuation and execution risk remain meaningful. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Flywire Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is 15% to 21% YoY growth. |
| Intact |
| YoY revenue growth falls below 15% in FY26 |
Revenue growth: 25.06% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 15% to 21% YoY growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 202625.063706 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Repurchase shares under stock buyback program totaling about $29 million in 2026-Q1 | A supporting condition in Flywire Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is Repurchase of approximately $29 million shares in 2026-Q1. | Intact | Buyback program execution falls significantly below $29 million in 2026-Q1 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.25 → $0.70 · observed estimates
$0.86B → $0.88B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.25 | $862,894,820 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.25 | $860,917,900 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.66 | $863,884,970 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.66 | $863,884,970 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.66 | $863,884,970 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.66 | $863,884,970 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.66 | $863,884,970 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.25 | $860,917,900 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.66 | $863,884,970 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.25 | $860,917,900 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.25 | $860,917,900 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.25 | $860,917,900 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.25 | $860,917,900 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.25 | $860,917,900 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.66 | $874,411,292 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.66 | $874,411,292 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.32 | $873,761,560 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.32 | $873,761,560 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.66 | $874,411,292 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.35 | $875,291,340 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.66 | $874,411,292 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.66 | $874,411,292 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.66 | $874,411,292 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.66 | $874,411,292 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.66 | $874,411,292 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.66 | $874,411,292 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.66 | $874,411,292 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.68 | $881,631,453 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.68 | $881,631,453 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.68 | $881,631,453 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.68 | $881,631,453 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.68 | $881,631,453 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.68 | $881,631,453 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.68 | $881,631,453 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.68 | $881,631,453 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.68 | $881,631,453 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.71 | $882,158,453 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.71 | $882,158,453 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.71 | $882,158,453 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.71 | $882,158,453 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.71 | $882,158,453 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.71 | $882,158,453 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.71 | $882,158,453 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.71 | $882,158,453 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.71 | $882,158,453 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.71 | $882,158,453 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.71 | $882,158,453 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.71 | $882,158,453 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.71 | $882,158,453 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.71 | $882,158,453 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.71 | $882,158,453 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.71 | $882,158,453 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.71 | $882,158,453 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.71 | $882,158,453 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.71 | $882,158,453 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.71 | $882,158,453 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.71 | $882,158,453 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.71 | $882,158,453 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.71 | $882,158,453 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.71 | $882,158,453 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.71 | $881,609,122 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.71 | $881,609,122 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.71 | $881,609,122 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.71 | $881,609,122 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.70 | $881,466,264 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.70 | $881,466,264 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.70 | $881,466,264 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.70 | $881,407,712 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.70 | $882,536,284 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.70 | $882,536,284 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.70 | $882,536,284 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.70 | $882,536,284 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.70 | $882,536,284 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.70 | $882,536,284 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.70 | $882,536,284 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.70 | $882,536,284 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.70 | $882,536,284 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.70 | $880,350,569 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.70 | $880,350,569 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.70 | $880,350,569 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.70 | $880,350,569 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.70 | $880,350,569 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.71 | $879,848,355 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.71 | $879,848,355 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.71 | $879,848,355 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.71 | $879,848,355 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.70 | $879,245,131 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.70 | $879,245,131 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.70 | $879,245,131 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.70 | $879,245,131 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.70 | $877,979,398 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.70 | $877,979,398 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.70 | $877,979,931 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.70 | $877,199,931 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.70 | $877,199,931 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.70 | $877,199,931 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.70 | $877,199,931 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.70 | $877,199,931 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.70 | $877,199,931 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.70 | $877,199,931 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.70 | $877,199,931 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.70 | $877,199,931 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.70 | $877,199,931 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.70 | $877,199,931 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.70 | $877,199,931 | 7 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 6 recorded
4 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.