FRT
Federal Realty Investment TrustNYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, FRT has a composite score of 29.7 and a signal label of "mild favorable." The score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 73.7 and a low risk label, with notable strengths in valuation (73.6) and momentum (61.0). However, there are unfavorable scenarios that could impact the score, including potential guidance cuts and changes in sector trends. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)0.08
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.72 → $0.73 (+0.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 58% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -4.4% above current price.
1 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
3 material events in the last 24 months — top 3 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Raise and tighten 2026 earnings guidancegrowthbehind12% progress
5/1: “Federal Realty has raised and tightened its 2026 earnings per diluted share guidance.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EPS guidance was raised from $3.90-$4.00 in 2025-Q4 to $3.94-$4.03 in 2026-Q1. Despite the increase, the status remains 'behind' as per prior priorities, indicating limited progress.
- 2.Manage capital allocation obligationscapital allocationmixed35% progress
4/15: “Federal Realty entered into a Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Federal Realty entered into a new credit agreement, indicating efforts to manage capital allocation. However, the status is 'behind', suggesting challenges in meeting obligations.
- 3.Address earnings missothermixed33% progress
5/1: “Federal Realty reported an earnings beat for the quarter ended March 31, 2026.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Despite reporting an earnings beat for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, the status remains 'watch', indicating ongoing concerns about earnings performance.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 18%; 252d 18%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −7%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLRE) — 0.91 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 99/100.
Sub-scores — vol 70/100, drawdown 86/100, beta 91/100, earnings vol —.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Raise and tighten 2026 earnings guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Federal Realty aims to raise and tighten its 2026 earnings per diluted share guidance.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EPS guidance was raised from $3.90-$4.00 in 2025-Q4 to $3.94-$4.03 in 2026-Q1. Despite the increase, the status remains 'behind' as per prior priorities, indicating limited progress.
12%CEO/CFO:“Federal Realty has raised and tightened its 2026 earnings per diluted share guidance.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-01Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (2)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Federal Realty has raised and tightened its 2026 earnings per diluted share guidance.”
- 2025-Q4Multiple sources
“Introduced 2026 earnings per diluted share guidance of $3.90 to $4.00.”
- #2
Manage capital allocation obligations
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Federal Realty is focused on managing its capital allocation obligations effectively.
Behind →MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Federal Realty entered into a new credit agreement, indicating efforts to manage capital allocation. However, the status is 'behind', suggesting challenges in meeting obligations.
35%CEO/CFO:“Federal Realty entered into a Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-04-15Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Federal Realty entered into a Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement.”
- #3
Address earnings miss
OtherNew since 2026-05-04Federal Realty is addressing the earnings miss to improve financial performance.
Watch →MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q1. Despite reporting an earnings beat for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, the status remains 'watch', indicating ongoing concerns about earnings performance.
33%CEO/CFO:“Federal Realty reported an earnings beat for the quarter ended March 31, 2026.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-01Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q1Multiple sources
“Federal Realty reported an earnings beat for the quarter ended March 31, 2026.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
68 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FRT Federal Realty Investment Trust | +30 | inexpensive | low |
WELL Welltower | +7.9 | expensive | low |
PLD Prologis | +10 | full | low |
EQIX Equinix | +22 | fair | moderate |
AMT American Tower | +18 | fair | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If real_estate sector trend rises from +0.00 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter EPS surprise repeats current direction (latest surprise +147.9% on 2026-03-31)+2.4 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently RAISED as of 2026-05-01)-16 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-8.0 pts
- If real_estate sector trend falls from +0.00 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-018d agoItem 2.02
and the exhibits attached hereto shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or under the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing. On May 1, 2026, Federal Realty Investment Trust issued supplemental data pertaining to its operations, as well as a press release, to report its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The supplemental data and press release are furnished as Exhibi…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 60 - 2026-04-1524d agoItem 1.01
Entry into Material Definitive Agreement. Amendments to Credit Agreement and Term Loan Agreements Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement On April 14, 2026, Federal Realty OP LP (the “Partnership”) entered into a Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “New Credit Agreement”), by and among the Partnership, as Borrower, the financial institutions party thereto and their permitted assignees, as Lenders, Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as Administrative Agent, and the other…
capital allocationneutralscore 38 - 2026-04-1524d agoItem 2.03
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The disclosure required by this
capital allocationnegativescore 30 - 2026-04-1524d agoItem 1.02
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. The disclosure required by this
mna activitynegativescore 30
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.