Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
FERVO ENERGY (FRVO)
NASDAQUtilitiesRenewable UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$7.79-12.47%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQUtilitiesRenewable UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FRVO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Advance Cape Station development and commissioning | Fervo Energy is advancing its Cape Station project. | Improving | Phase II development is delayed beyond 2028 | Commercial operation achieved vs 2028 target News confirms Cape Station reached commercial operation on 2026-10-01 and achieved first power in Sept 2026. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk development and growth story, not a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: Cape Station milestones are advancing, while recent financial performance is weak and confidence in the assessment has fallen.
The evidence provides no valuation level or clear account of market expectations, so whether FRVO looks cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. The priced-in fragility measure is low, but that does not resolve the uncertainty around the company’s earnings or valuation.
Near term, earnings risk is elevated: FRVO has missed recent quarters, including its latest, and the estimated chance of another miss is 56%. Over the multi-year view, Cape Station’s first GeoBlock began commercial operation ahead of schedule and generated 33 MW net power, while Phase II remains aimed at a 2028 start; revenue has also moved from zero to a small positive amount. Capital spending remains large, with plans for about $1.2 billion from Q2 2026 through Q1 2027, and delivery against those plans matters.
A guidance cut on the next call would add to the negative signal from recent misses. Progress depends on continued Cape Station commissioning, Phase II development, and management’s ability to manage the planned capital spending. Rate cuts and stronger earnings or guidance from sector peers could support the sector backdrop, but FRVO’s own execution remains central.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, FRVO’s case rests on turning Cape Station milestones into sustained revenue while managing heavy spending and weak earnings. The project is progressing, but the evidence is limited and near-term operating risk remains elevated. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in FERVO ENERGY's published investment case. The stated target is around $1.2 billion from Q2 2026 to Q1 2027. |
| Intact |
| Capital expenditures exceed $1.2 billion from Q2 2026 to Q1 2027 |
Capital expenditures: $226.485M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: around $1.2 billion from Q2 2026 to Q1 2027. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 13, 2026226,485,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 1 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Expect total capital expenditures of approximately $850.0 to $900.0 million in the second half of 2026, in line with previously disclosed expectations, reflecting continued construction activity at Cape Station as well as broader pipeline development activities, including long-lead procurement and appraisal work across the Company's GeoCluster portfolio.” “• Reported Q2 2026 capital expenditures of $226.5 million, compared to $108.0 million in Q2 2025, reflecting continued investment in Cape Station development and construction activities.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Increase revenue from near zero to positive levels | A primary condition in FERVO ENERGY's published investment case. The stated target is >=60M in 2027. | Intact | Revenue falls below $60M in 2027 | Revenue: $113,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=60M in 2027. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 13, 2026113,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.19 → $-0.39 · observed estimates
$0.08B → $0.07B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.19 | $79,875,060 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.19 | $79,875,060 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.26 | $78,967,142 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.19 | $79,875,060 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.19 | $79,875,060 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.26 | $78,967,142 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.26 | $78,967,142 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.19 | $79,875,060 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.19 | $79,875,060 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.19 | $79,875,060 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.19 | $79,875,060 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.26 | $78,967,142 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.19 | $79,875,060 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.19 | $79,875,060 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.19 | $79,875,060 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.19 | $79,875,060 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.19 | $79,875,060 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.19 | $79,875,060 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.26 | $78,967,142 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.26 | $78,967,142 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.26 | $78,967,142 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.26 | $78,967,142 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.26 | $78,967,142 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.26 | $78,967,142 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.37 | $72,901,979 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.37 | $72,901,979 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.37 | $72,901,979 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.37 | $72,901,979 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.37 | $72,901,979 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.37 | $72,901,979 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.37 | $72,901,979 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.37 | $72,901,979 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.37 | $72,901,979 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.37 | $72,901,979 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.37 | $72,901,979 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.37 | $72,901,979 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.37 | $72,901,979 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.37 | $72,901,979 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.37 | $72,876,524 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.37 | $72,876,524 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.36 | $72,872,379 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.36 | $72,872,379 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.36 | $72,872,379 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.36 | $72,872,379 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.36 | $72,872,379 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.36 | $72,872,379 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.37 | $72,358,014 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.37 | $72,358,014 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.37 | $72,358,014 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.37 | $72,358,014 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.37 | $72,358,014 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.37 | $72,358,014 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.37 | $72,358,014 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.37 | $72,358,014 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.37 | $72,358,014 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.37 | $72,358,014 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.37 | $72,358,014 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.37 | $72,358,014 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.37 | $72,358,014 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.37 | $72,358,014 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.37 | $72,358,014 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.37 | $72,358,014 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.37 | $72,391,107 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.37 | $72,391,107 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.37 | $72,391,107 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.37 | $72,391,107 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.39 | $71,699,389 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.39 | $71,699,389 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.39 | $71,699,389 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.37 | $71,699,389 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.37 | $71,699,389 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.37 | $71,699,389 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.37 | $71,699,389 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.37 | $71,699,389 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.37 | $71,699,389 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.37 | $70,899,328 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.37 | $70,899,328 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.37 | $70,899,328 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.37 | $70,899,328 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.37 | $70,899,328 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.37 | $70,899,328 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.37 | $70,899,328 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.37 | $70,899,328 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.37 | $70,899,328 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.37 | $70,899,328 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.37 | $71,726,662 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.38 | $71,672,644 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.38 | $71,672,644 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.38 | $71,672,644 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.38 | $71,672,644 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.38 | $71,672,644 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.38 | $71,672,644 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.38 | $71,672,644 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.38 | $71,672,644 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.38 | $71,672,644 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.39 | $71,624,473 | 5 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.39 | $71,624,473 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.39 | $71,624,473 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.39 | $71,624,473 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.39 | $71,624,473 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.39 | $71,624,473 | 6 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.